{ "ticker": { "uuid": "854d2ecf-bfa6-4e32-8682-3ec270ae46a6", "symbol": "S7OU", "name": "Asian Pay Television Trust", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.638, "architecture_energy": 50.973, "architecture_maturity": 55.405, "architecture_confidence": 88.763, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.71, "rotation_up": 18.18, "upward_expansion": 6.44, "deceleration": 57.05, "rotation_down": 59.22, "downward_expansion": 77.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.084, 0.084655, 0.085281, 0.086454 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.083, "trend_reference": 0.089076, "distance_from_trend": -0.068215, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.076263, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.08834, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.545631, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.170133, "excess_performance": -0.324968, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068215, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045242, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.08834, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052918, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245456, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112447, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.170133, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.006813, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5344000, "relative_activity": 2.056404, "balance": 0.006813, "dry_up": 1.988928, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025023, "annualized_volatility": 0.224429, "from_high_reference": -0.200308, "from_low_reference": 0.012195 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.089076, "fair_value_reference": 0.076263, "structural_low": 0.082, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.009983, "positive_rate": 0.269231, "directional_follow_through": 0.576923, "median_excess_return": -0.016624, "regime_survival": 0.884615, "best_return": 0.078435, "worst_return": -0.085101, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.039429, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.04788, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.049995, "worst_return": -0.11444, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.071859, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.10612, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.052508, "worst_return": -0.112148, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040449, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02468, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.037506, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.000858, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012663, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Extended", 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2879100, "typical_volume": 2565791.1, "trend": 0.090179, "fair_value": 0.076122, "relative_strength": -22.117638, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.447779, "energy": 33.343445, "activity_lines": [ 0.0856, 0.085509, 0.085918, 0.087346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.083, "volume": 10387600, "typical_volume": 2700226.1, "trend": 0.089644, "fair_value": 0.076197, "relative_strength": -24.044031, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.188666, "energy": 47.497423, "activity_lines": [ 0.084733, 0.085055, 0.08559, 0.086882 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.083, "volume": 5344000, "typical_volume": 2598711.1, "trend": 0.089076, "fair_value": 0.076263, "relative_strength": -24.545631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.637825, "energy": 50.972772, "activity_lines": [ 0.084, 0.084655, 0.085281, 0.086454 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }