{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8551868b-c0f0-41db-a833-46149dc5f980", "symbol": "WCOG", "name": "WisdomTree Enhanced Commodity UCITS ETF - USD", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.067, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.424, "architecture_energy": 31.073, "architecture_maturity": 38.73, "architecture_confidence": 52.443, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.89, "rotation_up": 58.11, "upward_expansion": 65.02, "deceleration": 67.45, "rotation_down": 10.19, "downward_expansion": 10.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 1341.633333, 1323.668182, 1337.036905, 1328.230645 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1339.5, "trend_reference": 1295.375, "distance_from_trend": 0.034063, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1099.218245, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218593, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.610771, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.181217, "excess_performance": 0.129982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034063, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06429, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218593, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057517, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.036108, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.132215, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.181217, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.360918, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84085, "relative_activity": 0.713218, "balance": 0.360918, "dry_up": 1.794155, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031115, "annualized_volatility": 0.20483, "from_high_reference": -0.074931, "from_low_reference": 0.361051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1295.375, "fair_value_reference": 1099.218245, "structural_low": 1110.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.00765, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": -0.008043, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.055836, "worst_return": -0.050047, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.001159, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.023505, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.241514, "worst_return": -0.132555, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012587, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.014025, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.409806, "worst_return": -0.062883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.122295, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.066342, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.263623, "worst_return": -0.019034, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.053147, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009406, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082034, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046467, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.000472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062312, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040082, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007972, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", 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1.76504, "energy": 21.561666, "activity_lines": [ 1295.733333, 1312.613636, 1334.880952, 1314.211563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1372.0, "volume": 11547, "typical_volume": 112802.65, "trend": 1277.6, "fair_value": 1096.297508, "relative_strength": 8.180686, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.814177, "energy": 17.553227, "activity_lines": [ 1322.7, 1319.172727, 1338.011905, 1320.886022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1339.25, "volume": 696222, "typical_volume": 124942.55, "trend": 1287.308333, "fair_value": 1097.761876, "relative_strength": 4.120832, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.128218, "energy": 23.754755, "activity_lines": [ 1334.583333, 1320.804545, 1337.496429, 1324.863441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1339.5, "volume": 84085, "typical_volume": 117895.2, "trend": 1295.375, "fair_value": 1099.218245, "relative_strength": 3.610771, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.423988, "energy": 31.07327, "activity_lines": [ 1341.633333, 1323.668182, 1337.036905, 1328.230645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }