{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8552930d-6d57-4a33-843d-a24adcd9522d", "symbol": "SATS", "name": "Sats ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.512, "architecture_energy": 17.018, "architecture_maturity": 20.714, "architecture_confidence": 64.874, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.56, "rotation_up": 29.57, "upward_expansion": 10.65, "deceleration": 52.0, "rotation_down": 43.39, "downward_expansion": 47.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.13, 41.151818, 41.616191, 41.857572 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.400002, "trend_reference": 41.773086, "distance_from_trend": -0.008931, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.761797, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.491258, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.763442, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071571, "excess_performance": -0.053422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.008931, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024798, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.491258, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174113, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077634, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02705, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071571, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.584835, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 959516, "relative_activity": 0.489092, "balance": 0.584835, "dry_up": 0.51381, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043292, "annualized_volatility": 0.21071, "from_high_reference": -0.076923, "from_low_reference": 0.215307 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.773086, "fair_value_reference": 27.761797, "structural_low": 38.799999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.028152, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.007464, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.276102, "worst_return": -0.213849, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.075081, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.029106, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.385681, "worst_return": -0.099548, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.179368, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.023626, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.345291, "worst_return": -0.196322, "sufficient": false }, { 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"2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.088677, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.064394, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122759, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.088216, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017199, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.742233, "volume": 583906, "typical_volume": 818919.5, "trend": 9.262837, "fair_value": 15.675868, "relative_strength": 19.871272, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", 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"close": 40.799999, "volume": 1395371, "typical_volume": 2268579.3, "trend": 41.570957, "fair_value": 26.96959, "relative_strength": -5.428304, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.079312, "energy": 24.057901, "activity_lines": [ 41.303333, 41.637273, 42.099577, 42.019315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.5, "volume": 993727, "typical_volume": 2231353.15, "trend": 41.585553, "fair_value": 27.167479, "relative_strength": -7.166747, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.17103, "energy": 25.679688, "activity_lines": [ 40.99, 41.372727, 41.911905, 41.950221 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.049999, "volume": 1123446, "typical_volume": 2136347.8, "trend": 41.606476, "fair_value": 27.359816, "relative_strength": -10.29907, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.910355, "energy": 42.500505, "activity_lines": [ 40.603333, 41.051818, 41.694524, 41.851153 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.0, "volume": 955347, "typical_volume": 2071173.7, "trend": 41.694039, "fair_value": 27.56304, "relative_strength": -6.236419, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.446033, "energy": 23.539321, "activity_lines": [ 40.943333, 41.14, 41.680238, 41.876542 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.400002, "volume": 959516, "typical_volume": 1961832.05, "trend": 41.773086, "fair_value": 27.761797, "relative_strength": -7.763442, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.512007, "energy": 17.017629, "activity_lines": [ 41.13, 41.151818, 41.616191, 41.857572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }