{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85532e19-508b-4cf0-afd7-be40caee9af3", "symbol": "U1AL34", "name": "United Airlines Holdings, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.952, "architecture_energy": 40.964, "architecture_maturity": 64.682, "architecture_confidence": 86.582, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.99, "rotation_up": 41.62, "upward_expansion": 67.88, "deceleration": 85.21, "rotation_down": 26.75, "downward_expansion": 17.88 }, "activity_lines": [ 315.927323, 317.57145, 297.856903, 285.809892 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 336.359985, "trend_reference": 277.839, "distance_from_trend": 0.210629, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 207.216346, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.623231, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.161344, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.108307, "excess_performance": 0.165355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.210629, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037759, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.623231, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.343913, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.161613, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.35744, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.108307, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.483658, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13, "relative_activity": 0.002112, "balance": 2.483658, "dry_up": 0.282194, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069744, "annualized_volatility": 0.565659, "from_high_reference": -0.055832, "from_low_reference": 0.512954 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 277.839, "fair_value_reference": 207.216346, "structural_low": 222.320007, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.042064, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.078564, "regime_survival": 0.384615, "best_return": 0.252616, "worst_return": -0.224997, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.119469, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.041252, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.417819, "worst_return": -0.252942, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012197, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.097466, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.652563, "worst_return": -0.164965, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127523, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.157193, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.144444, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042769, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049873, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": 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46.716216, "energy": 33.347813, "activity_lines": [ 308.835327, 312.514361, 291.956047, 281.985183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 336.359985, "volume": 13, "typical_volume": 6155.35, "trend": 277.839, "fair_value": 207.216346, "relative_strength": 16.161344, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.952247, "energy": 40.964089, "activity_lines": [ 315.927323, 317.57145, 297.856903, 285.809892 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }