{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "8555b5b3-924a-4704-b569-29d6f6645bac",
    "symbol": "HAV-B",
    "name": "Havsfrun Investment AB (publ)",
    "exchange": "STO",
    "country": "SE",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^OMX",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -58.839,
    "architecture_energy": 39.286,
    "architecture_maturity": 13.351,
    "architecture_confidence": 94.47,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 23.0,
        "rotation_up": 19.35,
        "upward_expansion": 5.26,
        "deceleration": 46.85,
        "rotation_down": 55.68,
        "downward_expansion": 80.92
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        13.174667,
        13.268,
        13.553857,
        13.793972
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Stable",
      "price_acceptance": -0.833333
    },
    "latest_close": 13.06,
    "trend_reference": 13.915237,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.06146,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 12.713703,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.027238,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -19.650789,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.007535,
    "excess_performance": -0.06903,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.06146,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.01177,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.027238,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.034492,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.196508,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.040232,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007535,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.741381,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 42092,
      "relative_activity": 1.719877,
      "balance": 0.741381,
      "dry_up": 1.02393,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.067028,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.291633,
      "from_high_reference": -0.44422,
      "from_low_reference": 0.029223
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 13.915237,
      "fair_value_reference": 12.713703,
      "structural_low": 12.736186,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 26,
        "median_return": -0.02364,
        "positive_rate": 0.384615,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.615385,
        "median_excess_return": -0.012471,
        "regime_survival": 0.807692,
        "best_return": 0.233103,
        "worst_return": -0.235714,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.069565,
        "positive_rate": 0.555556,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.444444,
        "median_excess_return": 0.080034,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.516252,
        "worst_return": -0.288435,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.001398,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015797,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
        "best_return": 0.175115,
        "worst_return": -0.147253,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.092255,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
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        "regime_survival": 0.75,
        "best_return": 0.555072,
        "worst_return": -0.337327,
        "sufficient": false
      }
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-05-23",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.1875,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "date": "2026-04-24",
        "close": 14.34,
        "volume": 21081,
        "typical_volume": 40896.0,
        "trend": 14.243883,
        "fair_value": 12.598747,
        "relative_strength": -10.936938,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 34.187004,
        "energy": 16.017334,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.687333,
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          14.435925,
          14.279939
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 14.1,
        "volume": 9209,
        "typical_volume": 40296.35,
        "trend": 14.242346,
        "fair_value": 12.596112,
        "relative_strength": -11.061155,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 24.46168,
        "energy": 16.329623,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.388667,
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          14.430098,
          14.270656
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 13.38,
        "volume": 35599,
        "typical_volume": 39992.45,
        "trend": 14.20741,
        "fair_value": 12.602075,
        "relative_strength": -15.627547,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -9.467748,
        "energy": 16.128231,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.993333,
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          14.3548,
          14.215021
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "volume": 14377,
        "typical_volume": 40225.8,
        "trend": 14.134844,
        "fair_value": 12.608407,
        "relative_strength": -13.639539,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -16.475008,
        "energy": 20.095215,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.762667,
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          14.170672
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 24836,
        "typical_volume": 39352.65,
        "trend": 14.094211,
        "fair_value": 12.621102,
        "relative_strength": -9.009379,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -0.853475,
        "energy": 9.402756,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.037333,
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          14.352529,
          14.211004
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 22830,
        "typical_volume": 38459.65,
        "trend": 14.080976,
        "fair_value": 12.633875,
        "relative_strength": -11.217498,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 11.797209,
        "energy": 10.071567,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.150667,
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          14.228152
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 13.78,
        "volume": 10622,
        "typical_volume": 37054.65,
        "trend": 14.054673,
        "fair_value": 12.645573,
        "relative_strength": -14.140231,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 5.162801,
        "energy": 5.490854,
        "activity_lines": [
          14.069333,
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          14.208734
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 12.98,
        "volume": 14356,
        "typical_volume": 34909.2,
        "trend": 14.000138,
        "fair_value": 12.652671,
        "relative_strength": -18.814867,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -24.735157,
        "energy": 15.234061,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.742667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 16177,
        "typical_volume": 33306.05,
        "trend": 14.0001,
        "fair_value": 12.659653,
        "relative_strength": -17.398144,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -17.634067,
        "energy": 28.41894,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.596,
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          14.103262
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 13.64,
        "volume": 8841,
        "typical_volume": 30702.7,
        "trend": 14.012995,
        "fair_value": 12.66464,
        "relative_strength": -15.135189,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -15.315585,
        "energy": 34.99333,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.521333,
          13.716,
          14.08544,
          14.08003
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 13.32,
        "volume": 10992,
        "typical_volume": 29414.25,
        "trend": 14.01679,
        "fair_value": 12.671909,
        "relative_strength": -19.062532,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Supply rotation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -32.269676,
        "energy": 47.106229,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.414667,
          13.623273,
          13.998699,
          14.035321
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 13.44,
        "volume": 18008,
        "typical_volume": 27489.4,
        "trend": 14.001086,
        "fair_value": 12.68037,
        "relative_strength": -16.207511,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "modifier": "Structural failure",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.906471,
        "energy": 44.295195,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.417333,
          13.570909,
          13.920607,
          13.998109
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 13.34,
        "volume": 16606,
        "typical_volume": 26503.8,
        "trend": 13.994581,
        "fair_value": 12.691679,
        "relative_strength": -15.580879,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -55.188076,
        "energy": 39.95528,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.409333,
          13.512364,
          13.833444,
          13.955458
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 13.16,
        "volume": 21057,
        "typical_volume": 23826.3,
        "trend": 13.967978,
        "fair_value": 12.697289,
        "relative_strength": -17.733759,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.319426,
        "energy": 40.965132,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.317333,
          13.421818,
          13.735215,
          13.901614
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 13.18,
        "volume": 20483,
        "typical_volume": 23470.5,
        "trend": 13.940474,
        "fair_value": 12.705775,
        "relative_strength": -18.259771,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -55.447979,
        "energy": 33.710131,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.250667,
          13.341455,
          13.645824,
          13.850777
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 13.06,
        "volume": 42092,
        "typical_volume": 24473.85,
        "trend": 13.915237,
        "fair_value": 12.713703,
        "relative_strength": -19.650789,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -58.83893,
        "energy": 39.286327,
        "activity_lines": [
          13.174667,
          13.268,
          13.553857,
          13.793972
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}