{ "ticker": { "uuid": "855c0f3b-1843-47d5-af48-e15926f78d8c", "symbol": "GBAB", "name": "Guggenheim Taxbl Muni Bnd & Invtmnt Grd Debt Trst Com Shrs Of benf Int", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.902, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.801, "architecture_energy": 30.266, "architecture_maturity": 10.739, "architecture_confidence": 89.524, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.77, "rotation_up": 21.17, "upward_expansion": 8.48, "deceleration": 40.96, "rotation_down": 46.46, "downward_expansion": 72.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.941639, 13.994381, 14.001146, 14.069513 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 14.07, "trend_reference": 14.20127, "distance_from_trend": -0.009244, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.576982, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.036313, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.251895, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.028485, "excess_performance": -0.15411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.009244, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00794, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.036313, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008938, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.122519, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003097, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.028485, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.624609, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 552688, "relative_activity": 1.189989, "balance": 1.624609, "dry_up": 1.028643, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021869, "annualized_volatility": 0.121937, "from_high_reference": -0.061784, "from_low_reference": 0.050731 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.20127, "fair_value_reference": 13.576982, "structural_low": 13.39068, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.000194, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01213, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.070818, "worst_return": -0.116867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.036257, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.029299, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.117174, "worst_return": -0.144074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.021091, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.090843, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.08037, "worst_return": -0.031252, "sufficient": true }, { 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0.026063, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072679, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.029075, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.007417, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030869, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": 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decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.752851, "energy": 16.909052, "activity_lines": [ 14.106535, 14.035053, 14.049235, 14.145019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.09, "volume": 323563, "typical_volume": 458868.85, "trend": 14.237509, "fair_value": 13.544508, "relative_strength": -9.52422, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.180584, "energy": 12.036504, "activity_lines": [ 14.11006, 14.055062, 14.046169, 14.135054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.79, "volume": 534634, "typical_volume": 473082.8, "trend": 14.220123, "fair_value": 13.553331, "relative_strength": -10.683974, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.506517, "energy": 21.67594, "activity_lines": [ 14.002301, 14.019539, 14.018572, 14.106182 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.79, "volume": 500120, "typical_volume": 469048.7, "trend": 14.208246, "fair_value": 13.563799, "relative_strength": -11.307928, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.390249, "energy": 38.360866, "activity_lines": [ 13.914168, 13.981622, 13.994928, 14.078432 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.07, "volume": 552688, "typical_volume": 464447.95, "trend": 14.20127, "fair_value": 13.576982, "relative_strength": -12.251895, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.800894, "energy": 30.266094, "activity_lines": [ 13.941639, 13.994381, 14.001146, 14.069513 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }