{ "ticker": { "uuid": "856112e9-d29d-4718-b9b0-25cc76d9e585", "symbol": "ELK", "name": "Elkem ASA", "exchange": "OSL", "country": "NO", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.625, "architecture_energy": 24.295, "architecture_maturity": 30.935, "architecture_confidence": 55.758, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.36, "rotation_up": 37.07, "upward_expansion": 60.9, "deceleration": 64.27, "rotation_down": 22.31, "downward_expansion": 13.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.537333, 31.590182, 31.199238, 30.538882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 32.099998, "trend_reference": 29.827333, "distance_from_trend": 0.076194, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.019416, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.394475, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.128154, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.148069, "excess_performance": 0.023075, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.076194, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042889, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.394475, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083276, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001282, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027744, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.148069, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.621269, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2494162, "relative_activity": 0.795003, "balance": 1.621269, "dry_up": 0.779532, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065277, "annualized_volatility": 0.447535, "from_high_reference": -0.060305, "from_low_reference": 0.326446 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.827333, "fair_value_reference": 23.019416, "structural_low": 24.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.051635, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.008764, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.227681, "worst_return": -0.102809, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.106184, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.00756, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.264594, "worst_return": -0.067543, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.062027, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.067863, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.533181, "worst_return": -0.002632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.012794, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.033298, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.227681, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.070588, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055976, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"typical_volume": 3891633.15, "trend": 29.599333, "fair_value": 22.805096, "relative_strength": -0.938688, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.207512, "energy": 24.192255, "activity_lines": [ 31.370666, 31.647636, 30.589619, 30.047054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.74, "volume": 3189437, "typical_volume": 3720444.25, "trend": 29.682, "fair_value": 22.859384, "relative_strength": 2.311161, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.299998, "energy": 20.603026, "activity_lines": [ 31.368, 31.717091, 30.767238, 30.185161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.540001, "volume": 1915093, "typical_volume": 3517763.9, "trend": 29.75, "fair_value": 22.912011, "relative_strength": -0.936763, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.309313, "energy": 20.168933, "activity_lines": [ 31.390667, 31.708727, 30.920095, 30.305032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.040001, "volume": 2183801, "typical_volume": 3309429.6, "trend": 29.765333, "fair_value": 22.964838, "relative_strength": -3.017821, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.934281, "energy": 17.367408, "activity_lines": [ 31.28, 31.546546, 31.014762, 30.388258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.099998, "volume": 2494162, "typical_volume": 3137298.55, "trend": 29.827333, "fair_value": 23.019416, "relative_strength": -0.128154, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.625473, "energy": 24.295465, "activity_lines": [ 31.537333, 31.590182, 31.199238, 30.538882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }