{ "ticker": { "uuid": "856683c0-5d8c-4b76-b503-cdc0b29c84dd", "symbol": "ENFR", "name": "ALPS ETF TRUST ALERIAN ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.472, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.761, "architecture_energy": 42.939, "architecture_maturity": 8.589, "architecture_confidence": 80.799, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.67, "rotation_up": 53.99, "upward_expansion": 77.21, "deceleration": 55.71, "rotation_down": 17.27, "downward_expansion": 6.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 39.3813, 39.113255, 38.755997, 38.288511 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 38.4959, "trend_reference": 37.288964, "distance_from_trend": 0.032367, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.378345, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.356524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.029246, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.135638, "excess_performance": 0.010013, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032367, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080425, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.356524, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039184, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000292, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026743, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.135638, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.253267, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 389005, "relative_activity": 0.953229, "balance": 1.253267, "dry_up": 1.274704, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041643, "annualized_volatility": 0.218027, "from_high_reference": -0.059929, "from_low_reference": 0.334227 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.288964, "fair_value_reference": 28.378345, "structural_low": 33.863778, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.011571, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.01098, "regime_survival": 0.675, "best_return": 0.117533, "worst_return": -0.144477, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.03438, "positive_rate": 0.705882, "directional_follow_through": 0.705882, "median_excess_return": 0.021666, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.132985, "worst_return": -0.049846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.121121, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.033375, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.220126, "worst_return": 0.01138, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 8.610556, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.530022, "energy": 41.206037, "activity_lines": [ 38.971333, 38.754909, 38.392986, 37.753767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.46, "volume": 433701, "typical_volume": 391203.25, "trend": 36.737475, "fair_value": 28.127287, "relative_strength": 10.150154, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.827888, "energy": 53.021695, "activity_lines": [ 39.578667, 39.058182, 38.621065, 38.015011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.5, "volume": 897363, "typical_volume": 413615.15, "trend": 37.019184, "fair_value": 28.257061, "relative_strength": 6.244361, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.475277, "energy": 53.052827, "activity_lines": [ 39.67, 39.169818, 38.742228, 38.193239 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.4959, "volume": 389005, "typical_volume": 408091.75, "trend": 37.288964, "fair_value": 28.378345, "relative_strength": -0.029246, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.760559, "energy": 42.938793, "activity_lines": [ 39.3813, 39.113255, 38.755997, 38.288511 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }