{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8569f374-0f7b-4dbf-8d1d-97a9fc989ad9", "symbol": "ALPET", "name": "Pet Service Holding N.V.", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 75.19, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -23.578, "architecture_energy": 15.11, "architecture_maturity": 18.504, "architecture_confidence": 63.332, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.56, "rotation_up": 33.78, "upward_expansion": 25.28, "deceleration": 38.87, "rotation_down": 23.88, "downward_expansion": 47.94 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.394667, 4.321818, 4.353905, 4.389032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.4, "trend_reference": 4.468667, "distance_from_trend": -0.015366, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.700446, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.063919, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.654164, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.153846, "excess_performance": -0.207158, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015366, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033732, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.063919, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048959, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116542, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020402, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.153846, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.374188, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5412, "relative_activity": 1.253242, "balance": 2.374188, "dry_up": 1.425933, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081469, "annualized_volatility": 0.357216, "from_high_reference": -0.278689, "from_low_reference": 0.157895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.468667, "fair_value_reference": 4.700446, "structural_low": 3.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020321, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.017663, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.146154, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.020833, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.051961, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.120792, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.008333, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.040672, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.008333, "worst_return": 0.008333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047009, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.270833, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.24, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008811, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037344, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008621, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04329, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146154, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"typical_volume": 3411.6, "trend": 4.494667, "fair_value": 4.710255, "relative_strength": -8.421634, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.955935, "energy": 39.660712, "activity_lines": [ 4.242667, 4.298182, 4.347333, 4.406882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.32, "volume": 4683, "typical_volume": 3636.55, "trend": 4.484, "fair_value": 4.707753, "relative_strength": -10.386042, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.18902, "energy": 23.154626, "activity_lines": [ 4.28, 4.290909, 4.342095, 4.395613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.46, "volume": 9504, "typical_volume": 4081.75, "trend": 4.478, "fair_value": 4.704292, "relative_strength": -8.682269, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.858135, "energy": 14.515439, "activity_lines": [ 4.361333, 4.307273, 4.350762, 4.394065 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.4, "volume": 5412, "typical_volume": 4318.4, "trend": 4.468667, "fair_value": 4.700446, "relative_strength": -11.654164, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.578204, "energy": 15.109681, "activity_lines": [ 4.394667, 4.321818, 4.353905, 4.389032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }