{ "ticker": { "uuid": "857550fe-3b01-4676-8609-b76c2d1d2a89", "symbol": "EMR", "name": "Emerald Resources NL", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 73.676, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -20.93, "architecture_energy": 16.689, "architecture_maturity": 22.409, "architecture_confidence": 59.669, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.81, "rotation_up": 22.41, "upward_expansion": 10.53, "deceleration": 58.89, "rotation_down": 40.51, "downward_expansion": 69.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.577333, 5.544909, 5.678381, 5.775591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 6.25, "trend_reference": 6.008, "distance_from_trend": 0.04028, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.219615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.481178, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.970583, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.018838, "excess_performance": -0.082544, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.04028, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009126, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.481178, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072886, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.059706, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110658, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.018838, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.699148, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7303011, "relative_activity": 1.105115, "balance": 0.699148, "dry_up": 0.919134, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091508, "annualized_volatility": 0.541594, "from_high_reference": -0.229346, "from_low_reference": 0.827485 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.008, "fair_value_reference": 4.219615, "structural_low": 4.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.175644, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.165108, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.296407, "worst_return": -0.080831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.143713, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.214339, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.498584, "worst_return": 0.018692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.28972, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.21073, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.804533, "worst_return": 0.185629, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.947423, 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"tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11165, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107143, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0271, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.229462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.048017, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.160072, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", 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"relative_strength": -2.448901, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.692225, "energy": 41.144438, "activity_lines": [ 5.583333, 5.685636, 5.797095, 5.934645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.97, "volume": 4923562, "typical_volume": 7092601.6, "trend": 6.083667, "fair_value": 4.154551, "relative_strength": -9.495001, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.302195, "energy": 64.766524, "activity_lines": [ 5.371333, 5.538, 5.711143, 5.859806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.19, "volume": 6764916, "typical_volume": 7013988.35, "trend": 6.042, "fair_value": 4.174167, "relative_strength": -5.70769, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.648812, "energy": 61.276208, "activity_lines": [ 5.258667, 5.450909, 5.65619, 5.802151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.39, "volume": 5304437, "typical_volume": 6918404.0, "trend": 6.009667, "fair_value": 4.194679, "relative_strength": -4.924248, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.67287, "energy": 58.293446, "activity_lines": [ 5.266667, 5.415273, 5.625333, 5.760086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.25, "volume": 7303011, "typical_volume": 6608371.45, "trend": 6.008, "fair_value": 4.219615, "relative_strength": 5.970583, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.929959, "energy": 16.689091, "activity_lines": [ 5.577333, 5.544909, 5.678381, 5.775591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }