{ "ticker": { "uuid": "857c1850-5be7-4ab0-8483-d4f93f3cf472", "symbol": "RWX", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR DOW JONES INTERNATIONAL REAL ESTATE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 62.415, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 24.562, "architecture_energy": 27.209, "architecture_maturity": 4.754, "architecture_confidence": 61.014, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.46, "rotation_up": 62.22, "upward_expansion": 38.03, "deceleration": 29.51, "rotation_down": 14.94, "downward_expansion": 19.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.87858, 27.580798, 27.432643, 27.551502 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 28.1201, "trend_reference": 27.857467, "distance_from_trend": 0.009428, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.075055, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.121437, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.547768, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.035186, "excess_performance": -0.160811, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.009428, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003955, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.121437, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006933, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.095478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001215, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.035186, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.896016, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 153464, "relative_activity": 0.878357, "balance": 0.896016, "dry_up": 0.656634, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027972, "annualized_volatility": 0.196003, "from_high_reference": -0.07065, "from_low_reference": 0.078638 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.857467, "fair_value_reference": 25.075055, "structural_low": 26.07, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011509, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.022283, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.111671, "worst_return": -0.034168, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.019755, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.014108, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.114231, "worst_return": -0.067449, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012977, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.056852, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.166798, "worst_return": 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"Developing", "return": 0.045061, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026669, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027551, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.052361, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.013158, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.004775, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": 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51.829538, "activity_lines": [ 26.805389, 27.051494, 27.385493, 27.682978 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 27.14, "volume": 91394, "typical_volume": 168809.15, "trend": 27.874328, "fair_value": 24.90842, "relative_strength": -8.83447, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.520116, "energy": 42.473858, "activity_lines": [ 26.895191, 27.009547, 27.319858, 27.634406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 27.31, "volume": 112023, "typical_volume": 169224.65, "trend": 27.877562, "fair_value": 24.93885, "relative_strength": -9.932748, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.550721, "energy": 22.771941, "activity_lines": [ 27.036278, 27.029964, 27.279965, 27.597998 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.17, "volume": 607039, "typical_volume": 193302.35, "trend": 27.87285, "fair_value": 24.961592, "relative_strength": -11.345586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.551285, "energy": 22.301732, "activity_lines": [ 27.130775, 27.035543, 27.238553, 27.552349 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 27.7041, "volume": 120950, "typical_volume": 195033.95, "trend": 27.878402, "fair_value": 24.986712, "relative_strength": -7.985863, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.165922, "energy": 15.815224, "activity_lines": [ 27.33172, 27.150763, 27.261293, 27.541462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.6, "volume": 60804, "typical_volume": 183137.1, "trend": 27.867265, "fair_value": 25.010411, "relative_strength": -7.599751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.251094, "energy": 16.863811, "activity_lines": [ 27.472427, 27.250686, 27.286137, 27.5235 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.05, "volume": 123683, "typical_volume": 184414.35, "trend": 27.868811, "fair_value": 25.042044, "relative_strength": -6.895685, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.514058, "energy": 14.582829, "activity_lines": [ 27.694153, 27.418376, 27.357936, 27.535289 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.1201, "volume": 153464, "typical_volume": 174717.2, "trend": 27.857467, "fair_value": 25.075055, "relative_strength": -9.547768, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.562182, "energy": 27.208697, "activity_lines": [ 27.87858, 27.580798, 27.432643, 27.551502 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }