{ "ticker": { "uuid": "857f14cb-2f46-4d62-881e-47222aead133", "symbol": "DOCU", "name": "DocuSign Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 95.93, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.274, "architecture_energy": 76.203, "architecture_maturity": 41.063, "architecture_confidence": 58.354, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.98, "rotation_up": 79.25, "upward_expansion": 91.21, "deceleration": 42.02, "rotation_down": 8.52, "downward_expansion": 15.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 55.106667, 51.659455, 49.733619, 48.905312 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 60.26, "trend_reference": 48.664, "distance_from_trend": 0.238287, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 63.26516, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.047501, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.868479, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.278591, "excess_performance": 0.091137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.238287, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114298, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.047501, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198537, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108685, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.292561, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.278591, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.220502, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13346401, "relative_activity": 0.734822, "balance": 1.220502, "dry_up": 0.850369, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.093769, "annualized_volatility": 0.402772, "from_high_reference": -0.304559, "from_low_reference": 0.500498 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 48.664, "fair_value_reference": 63.26516, "structural_low": 40.16, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.014769, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.07356, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.115682, "worst_return": -0.198658, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.113231, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.155128, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.345888, "worst_return": -0.23285, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042751, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.19314, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.455791, "worst_return": -0.266825, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.072717, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.475823, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.618743, "worst_return": -0.40729, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036536, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053832, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059045, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127318, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.300624, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.188319, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104349, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.187081, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044331, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-19", 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22.553946, "activity_lines": [ 46.438667, 46.875818, 46.985667, 47.641097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.74, "volume": 16031085, "typical_volume": 19721001.5, "trend": 49.934, "fair_value": 63.186891, "relative_strength": -21.459472, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.523929, "energy": 7.565141, "activity_lines": [ 48.774667, 47.854364, 47.539429, 47.785054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.44, "volume": 13493428, "typical_volume": 19346685.65, "trend": 49.283, "fair_value": 63.171378, "relative_strength": -22.621013, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.281487, "energy": 20.879637, "activity_lines": [ 49.83, 48.326727, 47.837619, 47.817699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.83, "volume": 18909276, "typical_volume": 19376494.95, "trend": 48.949, "fair_value": 63.194391, "relative_strength": -15.422304, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.85234, "energy": 41.427585, "activity_lines": [ 51.884, 49.547636, 48.545571, 48.17557 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.26, "volume": 13346401, "typical_volume": 18162756.8, "trend": 48.664, "fair_value": 63.26516, "relative_strength": -10.868479, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.274301, "energy": 76.202616, "activity_lines": [ 55.106667, 51.659455, 49.733619, 48.905312 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }