{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8580a86d-43e4-49ca-81c6-72cfe192a340", "symbol": "CASH3", "name": "M\u00e9liuz S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.291, "architecture_energy": 59.377, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.782, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.36, "rotation_up": 65.93, "upward_expansion": 84.17, "deceleration": 48.35, "rotation_down": 13.22, "downward_expansion": 10.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.635333, 4.448182, 4.308667, 4.16886 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.07, "trend_reference": 4.018, "distance_from_trend": 0.261822, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.111775, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008172, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 16.818065, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.440341, "excess_performance": 0.497389, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.261822, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025872, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008172, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.198622, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.168181, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.432759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.440341, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.910263, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11972500, "relative_activity": 1.933081, "balance": 0.910263, "dry_up": 1.711772, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.099833, "annualized_volatility": 0.48025, "from_high_reference": -0.166118, "from_low_reference": 0.579439 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.018, "fair_value_reference": 5.111775, "structural_low": 3.21, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025866, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.020729, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.193443, "worst_return": -0.436548, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.13753, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.105091, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.018715, "worst_return": -0.256345, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.336023, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.410562, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.226615, "worst_return": -0.445431, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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4.219636, 4.155619, 4.044237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.17, "volume": 18852500, "typical_volume": 6463490.0, "trend": 3.956, "fair_value": 5.162382, "relative_strength": -6.643892, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.508547, "energy": 41.564771, "activity_lines": [ 4.304667, 4.220545, 4.16981, 4.058344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.58, "volume": 4069600, "typical_volume": 6288330.0, "trend": 3.981, "fair_value": 5.131717, "relative_strength": 1.445033, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.75991, "energy": 55.112198, "activity_lines": [ 4.404667, 4.295091, 4.219048, 4.098602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.07, "volume": 11972500, "typical_volume": 6193480.0, "trend": 4.018, "fair_value": 5.111775, "relative_strength": 16.818065, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.291107, "energy": 59.376735, "activity_lines": [ 4.635333, 4.448182, 4.308667, 4.16886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }