{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8582a175-3450-4990-bfb6-771e4d9209c3", "symbol": "328370", "name": "Hanwha Plus KOSPI Total Return ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 54.731, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -10.935, "architecture_energy": 29.246, "architecture_maturity": 54.302, "architecture_confidence": 90.921, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.59, "rotation_up": 14.07, "upward_expansion": 43.15, "deceleration": 87.06, "rotation_down": 53.35, "downward_expansion": 39.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 37012.0, 40193.0, 41401.238095, 39649.27957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 35175.0, "trend_reference": 36872.333333, "distance_from_trend": -0.046033, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19531.50641, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.800936, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.810777, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.244692, "excess_performance": 0.014864, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046033, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.216909, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.800936, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.666326, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.008108, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005041, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.244692, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.679285, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23540, "relative_activity": 0.330832, "balance": 0.679285, "dry_up": 1.644318, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146258, "annualized_volatility": 0.469425, "from_high_reference": -0.339561, "from_low_reference": 1.068509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36872.333333, "fair_value_reference": 19531.50641, "structural_low": 28255.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042975, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.000924, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.285823, "worst_return": -0.013654, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062668, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.002355, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.282927, "worst_return": -0.062882, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.03241, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003253, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.090621, "worst_return": -0.025802, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007535, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.03897, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030259, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.057805, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.082805, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.106071, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058841, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.062276, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.057602, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13270.0, "volume": 906218, "typical_volume": 905827.0, "trend": 13324.166667, "fair_value": 13846.891026, "relative_strength": 1.019855, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.390377, 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44457.636364, 42289.595238, 39566.677419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37325.0, "volume": 98087, "typical_volume": 58786.45, "trend": 36114.5, "fair_value": 19244.519231, "relative_strength": 0.140783, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.504472, "energy": 22.157782, "activity_lines": [ 40296.0, 43083.454545, 42099.619048, 39675.634409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37080.0, "volume": 309331, "typical_volume": 71950.4, "trend": 36549.0, "fair_value": 19394.00641, "relative_strength": 0.88799, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.620627, "energy": 21.615576, "activity_lines": [ 38652.333333, 41749.181818, 41856.714286, 39737.924731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35175.0, "volume": 23540, "typical_volume": 71153.95, "trend": 36872.333333, "fair_value": 19531.50641, "relative_strength": 0.810777, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -10.934764, "energy": 29.245605, "activity_lines": [ 37012.0, 40193.0, 41401.238095, 39649.27957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }