{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8584e48b-71cb-419a-b116-ea11d87bb699", "symbol": "C7A", "name": "Clara Resources Australia Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.84, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.033, "architecture_energy": 19.897, "architecture_maturity": 32.162, "architecture_confidence": 88.409, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.76, "rotation_up": 26.03, "upward_expansion": 15.6, "deceleration": 34.29, "rotation_down": 35.27, "downward_expansion": 63.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.003067, 0.003055, 0.003174, 0.003269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.003, "trend_reference": 0.003383, "distance_from_trend": -0.1133, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.009185, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.673366, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.022619, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.25, "excess_performance": -0.313706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.1133, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00495, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.673366, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100251, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150226, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000272, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.199102, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9000055, "relative_activity": 0.954063, "balance": 4.199102, "dry_up": 0.568422, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.141026, "annualized_volatility": 0.992972, "from_high_reference": -0.5, "from_low_reference": 0.5 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003383, "fair_value_reference": 0.009185, "structural_low": 0.0025, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.105556, "positive_rate": 0.233333, "directional_follow_through": 0.566667, "median_excess_return": -0.09277, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.4, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.240385, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.241911, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.043478, "worst_return": -0.520833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.375, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.46744, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": -0.25, "worst_return": -0.538462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.6875, 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16.167613, "activity_lines": [ 0.003167, 0.003136, 0.003279, 0.003346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.003, "volume": 3682026, "typical_volume": 11221579.75, "trend": 0.0034, "fair_value": 0.009537, "relative_strength": -11.41632, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.024585, "energy": 18.805497, "activity_lines": [ 0.003133, 0.003109, 0.003243, 0.00332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.003, "volume": 1851955, "typical_volume": 9380956.25, "trend": 0.0034, "fair_value": 0.009351, "relative_strength": -12.880631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.715866, "energy": 18.496458, "activity_lines": [ 0.0031, 0.003082, 0.003207, 0.003295 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.003, "volume": 9000055, "typical_volume": 9433392.25, "trend": 0.003383, "fair_value": 0.009185, "relative_strength": -15.022619, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.033267, "energy": 19.89734, "activity_lines": [ 0.003067, 0.003055, 0.003174, 0.003269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }