{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85887540-bf37-493c-ae5c-4436d3d4c00c", "symbol": "5345", "name": "Fullhome Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -14.784, "architecture_energy": 13.06, "architecture_maturity": 15.798, "architecture_confidence": 54.1, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.98, "rotation_up": 21.37, "upward_expansion": 16.05, "deceleration": 61.74, "rotation_down": 52.2, "downward_expansion": 43.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.056667, 24.420909, 24.707857, 24.343871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.15, "trend_reference": 23.956667, "distance_from_trend": -0.075414, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.649199, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023133, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -34.822797, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.041126, "excess_performance": -0.482498, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075414, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025323, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023133, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030683, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.348228, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.06895, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041126, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.25146, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121137, "relative_activity": 0.433128, "balance": 1.25146, "dry_up": 0.836828, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.237541, "annualized_volatility": 0.857036, "from_high_reference": -0.417871, "from_low_reference": 0.213699 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 23.956667, "fair_value_reference": 21.649199, "structural_low": 18.25, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.012243, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036969, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.770833, "worst_return": -0.154739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.045231, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.050031, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.912281, "worst_return": -0.1875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015385, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.043777, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.434211, "worst_return": -0.377099, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.104078, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.108513, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.648855, "worst_return": -0.15257, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162281, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.303529, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.037838, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013308, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.16441, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.148741, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068893, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.05653, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098592, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019272, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047619, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022659, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084297, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.055437, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 16.125, "volume": 15360, "typical_volume": 17968.0, "trend": 17.190625, "fair_value": 20.340946, "relative_strength": -17.729588, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", 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21.425921, "relative_strength": -32.255715, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.49399, "energy": 42.599717, "activity_lines": [ 28.053333, 27.121818, 25.303571, 24.675161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.549999, "volume": 234725, "typical_volume": 243773.5, "trend": 23.985, "fair_value": 21.451082, "relative_strength": -40.740405, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.951166, "energy": 11.432988, "activity_lines": [ 24.719999, 26.017272, 24.85, 24.37871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 27.700001, "volume": 335558, "typical_volume": 259651.4, "trend": 24.115, "fair_value": 21.526482, "relative_strength": -17.24021, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.603829, "energy": 24.14366, "activity_lines": [ 25.006667, 26.434545, 25.190714, 24.618387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.450001, "volume": 285384, "typical_volume": 271062.45, "trend": 24.123333, "fair_value": 21.570633, "relative_strength": -28.349885, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.7134, "energy": 20.152064, "activity_lines": [ 24.186667, 25.951818, 25.10381, 24.575484 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.450001, "volume": 194096, "typical_volume": 276333.95, "trend": 24.066667, "fair_value": 21.612179, "relative_strength": -32.341631, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -6.001941, "energy": 15.167236, "activity_lines": [ 23.486667, 25.213636, 24.92, 24.467527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 22.15, "volume": 121137, "typical_volume": 279679.6, "trend": 23.956667, "fair_value": 21.649199, "relative_strength": -34.822797, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.783792, "energy": 13.06044, "activity_lines": [ 23.056667, 24.420909, 24.707857, 24.343871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }