{ "ticker": { "uuid": "858c9d26-3034-4ad1-9b73-09421b4e9a25", "symbol": "QQQH", "name": "NEOS NASDAQ-100(R) HEDGED EQUITY INCOME ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.48, "architecture_energy": 18.09, "architecture_maturity": 50.866, "architecture_confidence": 78.987, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.37, "rotation_up": 26.66, "upward_expansion": 49.75, "deceleration": 81.81, "rotation_down": 34.68, "downward_expansion": 27.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.120365, 54.333357, 54.37431, 53.84204 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 54.87, "trend_reference": 53.244421, "distance_from_trend": 0.030531, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 45.091227, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.216866, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.530389, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.053127, "excess_performance": -0.134327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030531, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015651, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.216866, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045179, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085304, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019632, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053127, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.439433, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143935, "relative_activity": 0.954813, "balance": 2.439433, "dry_up": 0.921857, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025414, "annualized_volatility": 0.114496, "from_high_reference": -0.023244, "from_low_reference": 0.119625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.244421, "fair_value_reference": 45.091227, "structural_low": 49.332943, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.025986, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.00423, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.084434, "worst_return": -0.026609, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.06863, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.016596, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.122515, "worst_return": 0.035186, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.150784, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.049636, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155005, "worst_return": -0.07294, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038344, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050338, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.011672, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.029051, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.077938, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"relative_strength": -7.032072, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.879631, "energy": 21.969132, "activity_lines": [ 54.590519, 54.777707, 54.272817, 53.691648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.349284, "volume": 102923, "typical_volume": 144690.0, "trend": 53.131674, "fair_value": 44.826586, "relative_strength": -6.476533, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.746105, "energy": 16.9243, "activity_lines": [ 54.116145, 54.499021, 54.261284, 53.706733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.5355, "volume": 196696, "typical_volume": 150017.3, "trend": 53.176562, "fair_value": 44.953118, "relative_strength": -6.445268, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.616985, "energy": 16.239331, "activity_lines": [ 53.874835, 54.280769, 54.259353, 53.732786 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 54.87, "volume": 143935, "typical_volume": 150746.85, "trend": 53.244421, "fair_value": 45.091227, "relative_strength": -8.530389, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.480373, "energy": 18.090282, "activity_lines": [ 54.120365, 54.333357, 54.37431, 53.84204 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }