{ "ticker": { "uuid": "858f8c9f-03c0-466a-866e-15c6f78e630b", "symbol": "CMB", "name": "Cambium Bio Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.763, "architecture_energy": 29.096, "architecture_maturity": 20.384, "architecture_confidence": 84.552, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.57, "rotation_up": 18.79, "upward_expansion": 10.14, "deceleration": 52.44, "rotation_down": 44.73, "downward_expansion": 69.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.419, 0.422727, 0.422238, 0.433462 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.41, "trend_reference": 0.458, "distance_from_trend": -0.104803, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.465769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.119736, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.494362, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.305085, "excess_performance": -0.36879, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104803, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041841, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.119736, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041873, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.164944, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164958, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.305085, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.624845, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 463, "relative_activity": 0.042082, "balance": 0.624845, "dry_up": 0.164214, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.077861, "annualized_volatility": 0.647631, "from_high_reference": -0.316667, "from_low_reference": 0.188406 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.458, "fair_value_reference": 0.465769, "structural_low": 0.345, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.011494, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.026464, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.166667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.183396, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.187989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.729167, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.476626, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.495129, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.211538, "worst_return": -0.804878, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.598077, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.664088, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.35, "worst_return": -0.846154, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.186813, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.242857, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.164706, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.030612, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false 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"typical_volume": 17106.25, "trend": 0.462167, "fair_value": 0.475577, "relative_strength": -11.618063, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.586529, "energy": 37.093796, "activity_lines": [ 0.418667, 0.423545, 0.42369, 0.440731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.43, "volume": 6324, "typical_volume": 15915.35, "trend": 0.460833, "fair_value": 0.471923, "relative_strength": -7.669852, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.887388, "energy": 30.990319, "activity_lines": [ 0.419333, 0.425182, 0.423571, 0.438656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.43, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12207.1, "trend": 0.459667, "fair_value": 0.468269, "relative_strength": -9.735173, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.932338, "energy": 27.11446, "activity_lines": [ 0.423, 0.426091, 0.423738, 0.436667 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.41, "volume": 463, "typical_volume": 11002.4, "trend": 0.458, "fair_value": 0.465769, "relative_strength": -16.494362, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.762886, "energy": 29.096492, "activity_lines": [ 0.419, 0.422727, 0.422238, 0.433462 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }