{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8595b2a7-c43f-4db7-9e9a-269ec6dd1de3", "symbol": "SQNS", "name": "Sequans Communications SA", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.579, "architecture_energy": 62.278, "architecture_maturity": 18.142, "architecture_confidence": 80.173, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.22, "rotation_up": 9.83, "upward_expansion": 12.94, "deceleration": 38.06, "rotation_down": 71.43, "downward_expansion": 88.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.668667, 2.860364, 3.13719, 3.164452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.76, "trend_reference": 3.352667, "distance_from_trend": -0.176775, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.328997, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.886555, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -52.629443, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.260054, "excess_performance": -0.385679, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.176775, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204524, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.886555, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006629, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.526294, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.150248, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.260054, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.828358, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 362546, "relative_activity": 0.43741, "balance": 1.828358, "dry_up": 0.433788, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.212391, "annualized_volatility": 0.75633, "from_high_reference": -0.795556, "from_low_reference": 0.159664 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.352667, "fair_value_reference": 24.328997, "structural_low": 2.38, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": -0.041868, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.07528, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.857143, "worst_return": -0.483333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.195205, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.214864, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.693667, "worst_return": -0.506653, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.216972, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.213869, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.277778, "worst_return": -0.749232, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.722473, "energy": 32.93066, "activity_lines": [ 3.115333, 3.282, 3.319143, 3.346817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.5, "volume": 443282, "typical_volume": 818746.9, "trend": 3.507, "fair_value": 25.080984, "relative_strength": -58.665838, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.654665, "energy": 53.264739, "activity_lines": [ 2.898, 3.100909, 3.249286, 3.276989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.43, "volume": 363953, "typical_volume": 826936.15, "trend": 3.427333, "fair_value": 24.755215, "relative_strength": -58.597909, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.306006, "energy": 63.196377, "activity_lines": [ 2.697333, 2.934545, 3.17581, 3.207505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.76, "volume": 362546, "typical_volume": 828847.35, "trend": 3.352667, "fair_value": 24.328997, "relative_strength": -52.629443, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.578689, "energy": 62.278051, "activity_lines": [ 2.668667, 2.860364, 3.13719, 3.164452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }