{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85969446-72b4-4d56-86de-3fcb0ab93df6", "symbol": "6603", "name": "Fu Chun Shin Machinery Manufacture Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.28, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 41.152, "architecture_energy": 48.113, "architecture_maturity": 38.817, "architecture_confidence": 48.544, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.62, "rotation_up": 60.63, "upward_expansion": 56.9, "deceleration": 25.12, "rotation_down": 22.02, "downward_expansion": 19.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.293333, 25.526364, 24.796667, 24.49086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.0, "trend_reference": 24.665, "distance_from_trend": 0.135212, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.695801, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.497662, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.621907, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.09589, "excess_performance": -0.345482, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.135212, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00564, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.497662, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.282697, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116219, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159147, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.09589, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.196318, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18408740, "relative_activity": 1.920996, "balance": 2.196318, "dry_up": 1.140903, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095192, "annualized_volatility": 0.502839, "from_high_reference": -0.22114, "from_low_reference": 0.873514 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.665, "fair_value_reference": 18.695801, "structural_low": 20.65, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.000467, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.03556, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.157658, "worst_return": -0.047091, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.04279, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.051124, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.284404, "worst_return": -0.083565, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.018372, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.139394, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.033943, "worst_return": -0.078546, "sufficient": false }, { 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false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.049275, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002967, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.146199, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021148, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.053572, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.422121, "energy": 12.136124, "activity_lines": [ 24.503334, 24.100909, 23.937619, 24.193118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.15, "volume": 3036199, "typical_volume": 8187174.25, "trend": 24.908333, "fair_value": 18.472789, "relative_strength": -20.419339, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.347946, "energy": 12.335959, "activity_lines": [ 24.423334, 24.175455, 23.983333, 24.134624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.15, "volume": 13991227, "typical_volume": 8658340.2, "trend": 24.873333, "fair_value": 18.5427, "relative_strength": -12.607978, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.960824, "energy": 25.304071, "activity_lines": [ 25.013333, 24.570909, 24.216905, 24.214731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.0, "volume": 8296540, "typical_volume": 8865457.3, "trend": 24.846667, "fair_value": 18.61284, "relative_strength": -15.110977, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 27.059979, "energy": 25.742151, "activity_lines": [ 25.336667, 24.870909, 24.41881, 24.287419 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 28.0, "volume": 18408740, "typical_volume": 9582914.85, "trend": 24.665, "fair_value": 18.695801, "relative_strength": -11.621907, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 41.152343, "energy": 48.112603, "activity_lines": [ 26.293333, 25.526364, 24.796667, 24.49086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }