{ "ticker": { "uuid": "8596b9cb-78cc-4be2-a337-693ba4b94b21", "symbol": "LTP", "name": "LTR PHARMA FPO [LTP]", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 67.222, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.676, "architecture_energy": 21.923, "architecture_maturity": 53.276, "architecture_confidence": 71.985, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.73, "rotation_up": 21.81, "upward_expansion": 49.68, "deceleration": 90.05, "rotation_down": 38.91, "downward_expansion": 27.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.483, 0.508636, 0.48781, 0.475258 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.475, "trend_reference": 0.474167, "distance_from_trend": 0.001757, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.619748, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.23356, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.541249, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.030612, "excess_performance": -0.094318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001757, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006287, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.23356, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079512, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.105412, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045808, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.030612, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.595134, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 654273, "relative_activity": 0.562163, "balance": 0.595134, "dry_up": 0.816738, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.134818, "annualized_volatility": 0.67455, "from_high_reference": -0.41358, "from_low_reference": 0.461538 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.474167, "fair_value_reference": 0.619748, "structural_low": 0.355, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.125, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.125924, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.373832, "worst_return": -0.306122, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.158879, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.097445, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.158879, "worst_return": -0.158879, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.093458, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.106171, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.093458, "worst_return": -0.093458, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.20339, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.233645, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.305556, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.613636, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 1165592.4, "trend": 0.4925, "fair_value": 0.622904, "relative_strength": 2.42704, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.376722, "energy": 28.678101, "activity_lines": [ 0.537667, 0.521818, 0.483048, 0.477151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.49, "volume": 909280, "typical_volume": 1175347.8, "trend": 0.4875, "fair_value": 0.621934, "relative_strength": -1.621078, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 13.710602, "energy": 13.916263, "activity_lines": [ 0.517333, 0.521364, 0.486071, 0.476989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.465, "volume": 913610, "typical_volume": 1181425.3, "trend": 0.479333, "fair_value": 0.620797, "relative_strength": -9.188698, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.136558, "energy": 10.674783, "activity_lines": [ 0.495333, 0.514818, 0.486524, 0.475538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.475, "volume": 654273, "typical_volume": 1163849.5, "trend": 0.474167, "fair_value": 0.619748, "relative_strength": -10.541249, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.675928, "energy": 21.923289, "activity_lines": [ 0.483, 0.508636, 0.48781, 0.475258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }