{ "ticker": { "uuid": "859a89bd-9d94-437c-b232-dbf6624fc440", "symbol": "SHO", "name": "SportsHero Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.915, "architecture_energy": 87.715, "architecture_maturity": 30.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.079, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.57, "rotation_up": 8.86, "upward_expansion": 21.98, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 77.34, "downward_expansion": 95.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.039867, 0.047091, 0.056895, 0.066535 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.04, "trend_reference": 0.075067, "distance_from_trend": -0.46714, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.031673, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.262902, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -37.51789, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.518072, "excess_performance": -0.581778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.46714, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045982, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.262902, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.221504, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.375179, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.726862, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.518072, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.335688, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17435992, "relative_activity": 1.806995, "balance": 0.335688, "dry_up": 1.579746, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.216346, "annualized_volatility": 0.93821, "from_high_reference": -0.714286, "from_low_reference": 0.290323 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.075067, "fair_value_reference": 0.031673, "structural_low": 0.034, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.069178, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 1.4, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.166667, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.183555, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.0, "worst_return": -0.727273, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.095238, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.002653, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 5.0, "worst_return": -0.8125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.043478, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.000875, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.125, "worst_return": -0.08, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.384615, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037037, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.2, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward 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0.066957, 0.073753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.039, "volume": 18287122, "typical_volume": 8212990.25, "trend": 0.0756, "fair_value": 0.031519, "relative_strength": -35.384017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.434799, "energy": 92.595545, "activity_lines": [ 0.0476, 0.054127, 0.063229, 0.071366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.036, "volume": 16399208, "typical_volume": 8901182.85, "trend": 0.075267, "fair_value": 0.031571, "relative_strength": -41.87713, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.578041, "energy": 93.171924, "activity_lines": [ 0.042333, 0.049982, 0.059671, 0.068811 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.04, "volume": 17435992, "typical_volume": 9649166.55, "trend": 0.075067, "fair_value": 0.031673, "relative_strength": -37.51789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.914604, "energy": 87.714914, "activity_lines": [ 0.039867, 0.047091, 0.056895, 0.066535 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }