{ "ticker": { "uuid": "859b8e23-7bc9-4b22-ae95-e86b4ac800f3", "symbol": "NFXS", "name": "DIREXION DAILY NFLX BEAR 1X SHARES", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.237, "architecture_energy": 55.774, "architecture_maturity": 31.113, "architecture_confidence": 82.341, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.59, "rotation_up": 60.12, "upward_expansion": 79.92, "deceleration": 63.56, "rotation_down": 18.12, "downward_expansion": 8.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.29866, 20.989896, 19.809905, 19.113478 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 20.6454, "trend_reference": 18.600242, "distance_from_trend": 0.109953, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.999049, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.214503, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 6.67324, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.052221, "excess_performance": -0.135232, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.109953, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.083751, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.214503, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.14427, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.066732, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.106026, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.052221, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.358344, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 93675, "relative_activity": 0.480287, "balance": 2.358344, "dry_up": 1.160776, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064716, "annualized_volatility": 0.424485, "from_high_reference": -0.11317, "from_low_reference": 0.599998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.600242, "fair_value_reference": 16.999049, "structural_low": 14.46, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.035182, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033447, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.085844, "worst_return": -0.015479, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, 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"fair_value": 16.961066, "relative_strength": 16.254448, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.980238, "energy": 70.704787, "activity_lines": [ 21.494007, 20.930887, 19.610555, 18.97592 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.6454, "volume": 93675, "typical_volume": 195039.6, "trend": 18.600242, "fair_value": 16.999049, "relative_strength": 6.67324, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.237494, "energy": 55.774413, "activity_lines": [ 21.29866, 20.989896, 19.809905, 19.113478 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }