{ "ticker": { "uuid": "859efe73-69db-456b-afa9-493faedf456b", "symbol": "EMC", "name": "Everest Metals Corporation Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.181, "architecture_energy": 20.565, "architecture_maturity": 88.67, "architecture_confidence": 43.508, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.36, "rotation_up": 41.04, "upward_expansion": 32.13, "deceleration": 47.26, "rotation_down": 25.6, "downward_expansion": 47.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.112033, 0.108218, 0.107843, 0.111402 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 0.1075, "trend_reference": 0.1189, "distance_from_trend": -0.095879, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.121353, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.114151, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.935421, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.283333, "excess_performance": -0.347039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095879, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035294, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.114151, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003291, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.149354, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000584, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.283333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.763569, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 271558, "relative_activity": 0.328251, "balance": 0.763569, "dry_up": 1.220087, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.10805, "annualized_volatility": 0.468458, "from_high_reference": -0.434211, "from_low_reference": 0.131579 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.1189, "fair_value_reference": 0.121353, "structural_low": 0.095, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.433333, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": -0.012226, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.611111, "worst_return": -0.197674, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.043805, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.063552, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.625, "worst_return": -0.250002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.141763, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.16368, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.585366, "worst_return": -0.250002, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1588688, "typical_volume": 1043654.6, "trend": 0.119817, "fair_value": 0.121881, "relative_strength": 3.753571, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.115431, "energy": 13.480383, "activity_lines": [ 0.1114, 0.107018, 0.1081, 0.112798 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.11, "volume": 553724, "typical_volume": 932134.35, "trend": 0.119317, "fair_value": 0.121561, "relative_strength": -10.431395, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.020525, "energy": 22.396325, "activity_lines": [ 0.1126, 0.107891, 0.108079, 0.112165 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1075, "volume": 271558, "typical_volume": 827287.1, "trend": 0.1189, "fair_value": 0.121353, "relative_strength": -14.935421, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.180853, "energy": 20.564702, "activity_lines": [ 0.112033, 0.108218, 0.107843, 0.111402 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }