{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85a124cd-7ea5-4a70-b3b2-f93051c77685", "symbol": "8200", "name": "Saudi Reinsurance Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.817, "architecture_energy": 62.362, "architecture_maturity": 34.159, "architecture_confidence": 77.963, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.71, "rotation_up": 14.43, "upward_expansion": 17.15, "deceleration": 32.39, "rotation_down": 67.26, "downward_expansion": 83.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 24.902667, 25.561455, 25.884571, 25.895054 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.120001, "trend_reference": 26.132, "distance_from_trend": -0.076994, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.142214, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.040657, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.532012, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.109963, "excess_performance": -0.078134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076994, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033199, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.040657, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.156283, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.12532, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.02683, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109963, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.833189, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5360536, "relative_activity": 2.327493, "balance": 1.833189, "dry_up": 1.046618, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054025, "annualized_volatility": 0.266319, "from_high_reference": -0.341399, "from_low_reference": 0.143128 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.132, "fair_value_reference": 25.142214, "structural_low": 21.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.016313, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.007044, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.30011, "worst_return": -0.13133, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.024077, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.013008, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.474359, "worst_return": -0.183587, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.008068, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.08985, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.860977, "worst_return": -0.208511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.164719, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.135333, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.872997, "worst_return": -0.17628, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.118534, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-05-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084615, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.023166, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.227965, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.173623, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049435, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.439667, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184524, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.190141, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.124249, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.094831, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.13074, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.048745, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.100671, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 12.530769, "volume": 1470282, "typical_volume": 864047.15, "trend": 11.682923, "fair_value": 10.588402, "relative_strength": 11.623747, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": 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"gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.855656, "energy": 15.035013, "activity_lines": [ 26.470666, 26.356363, 26.219238, 26.192903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.700001, "volume": 2072920, "typical_volume": 2388492.95, "trend": 26.348667, "fair_value": 24.914354, "relative_strength": -3.391358, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 22.419063, "energy": 13.010798, "activity_lines": [ 26.525333, 26.427636, 26.296667, 26.215398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.879999, "volume": 903406, "typical_volume": 2203925.7, "trend": 26.313333, "fair_value": 24.996375, "relative_strength": -6.687046, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -1.757041, "energy": 2.681833, "activity_lines": [ 26.304, 26.352, 26.280476, 26.185161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.9, "volume": 1305162, "typical_volume": 2062224.2, "trend": 26.203333, "fair_value": 25.069788, "relative_strength": -11.684657, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.370049, "energy": 42.03463, "activity_lines": [ 25.489333, 25.919273, 26.067048, 26.029462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.120001, "volume": 5360536, "typical_volume": 2303137.75, "trend": 26.132, "fair_value": 25.142214, "relative_strength": -12.532012, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.817388, "energy": 62.361768, "activity_lines": [ 24.902667, 25.561455, 25.884571, 25.895054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }