{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85a4f232-0690-46a5-8ad1-6b9f4b09381d", "symbol": "ATH", "name": "Athabasca Oil Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.1, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -6.83, "architecture_energy": 10.809, "architecture_maturity": 26.161, "architecture_confidence": 88.038, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.45, "rotation_up": 21.57, "upward_expansion": 43.87, "deceleration": 73.02, "rotation_down": 33.39, "downward_expansion": 35.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.389333, 10.480545, 10.810381, 10.63772 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 9.91, "trend_reference": 10.13, "distance_from_trend": -0.021718, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.164359, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.607629, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.208948, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.149652, "excess_performance": 0.029231, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.021718, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126265, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.607629, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.472782, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022089, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.375831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149652, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.710523, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9806000, "relative_activity": 0.966066, "balance": 0.710523, "dry_up": 0.934133, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078631, "annualized_volatility": 0.333827, "from_high_reference": -0.229393, "from_low_reference": 0.779174 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.13, "fair_value_reference": 6.164359, "structural_low": 8.32, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of 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"2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.134454, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.179024, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131078, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.164751, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074675, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010601, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": 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9.647667, "fair_value": 5.987244, "relative_strength": 13.952263, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.424501, "energy": 19.177642, "activity_lines": [ 10.447333, 10.807818, 10.92819, 10.467613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.76, "volume": 6077000, "typical_volume": 10978670.0, "trend": 9.776333, "fair_value": 6.034103, "relative_strength": 16.599936, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.490469, "energy": 16.694899, "activity_lines": [ 10.506, 10.743455, 10.937476, 10.539376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.96, "volume": 9954600, "typical_volume": 10814005.0, "trend": 9.911, "fair_value": 6.082436, "relative_strength": 17.559347, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.622865, "energy": 10.918993, "activity_lines": [ 10.666, 10.728545, 10.956571, 10.615742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.36, "volume": 12089900, "typical_volume": 10699455.0, "trend": 10.018333, "fair_value": 6.124872, "relative_strength": 10.901961, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.979842, "energy": 5.436718, "activity_lines": [ 10.608667, 10.630909, 10.908, 10.64471 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.91, "volume": 9806000, "typical_volume": 10150450.0, "trend": 10.13, "fair_value": 6.164359, "relative_strength": 2.208948, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -6.830097, "energy": 10.808869, "activity_lines": [ 10.389333, 10.480545, 10.810381, 10.63772 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }