{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85aa9657-3977-4831-82a1-f17cdde91eee", "symbol": "FAG", "name": "Fagerhult Group AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.442, "architecture_energy": 67.611, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.844, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.08, "rotation_up": 29.93, "upward_expansion": 13.49, "deceleration": 46.71, "rotation_down": 51.2, "downward_expansion": 84.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.530667, 17.652364, 18.632744, 20.592504 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.940001, "trend_reference": 24.024429, "distance_from_trend": -0.25326, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.886357, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.600324, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.344115, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.492228, "excess_performance": -0.553722, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.25326, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223459, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.600324, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012552, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.483441, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020172, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.492228, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.70716, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 943851, "relative_activity": 0.76624, "balance": 0.70716, "dry_up": 0.93932, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057628, "annualized_volatility": 0.535329, "from_high_reference": -0.59236, "from_low_reference": 0.085956 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.024429, "fair_value_reference": 44.886357, "structural_low": 16.52, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.009145, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.002987, "regime_survival": 0.84375, "best_return": 0.17715, "worst_return": -0.326212, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.128682, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.077321, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.36, "worst_return": -0.430968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.146665, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.122927, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.326, "worst_return": -0.545078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 17.898667, 18.060728, 19.710984, 22.141481 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.719999, "volume": 2021308, "typical_volume": 1418506.05, "trend": 25.34883, "fair_value": 45.264064, "relative_strength": -51.759026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.475307, "energy": 81.617776, "activity_lines": [ 17.512, 17.766546, 19.247219, 21.53813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.4, "volume": 857525, "typical_volume": 1263939.5, "trend": 24.648385, "fair_value": 45.066893, "relative_strength": -49.738899, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.640204, "energy": 67.446862, "activity_lines": [ 17.428, 17.642909, 18.891448, 21.025303 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.940001, "volume": 943851, "typical_volume": 1231795.75, "trend": 24.024429, "fair_value": 44.886357, "relative_strength": -48.344115, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.44189, "energy": 67.61149, "activity_lines": [ 17.530667, 17.652364, 18.632744, 20.592504 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }