{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85ac48a1-9484-4280-8ef4-7852b80104e9", "symbol": "PMM", "name": "Pioneer Minerals Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.654, "architecture_energy": 36.698, "architecture_maturity": 77.888, "architecture_confidence": 92.718, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.8, "rotation_up": 27.42, "upward_expansion": 18.37, "deceleration": 46.72, "rotation_down": 37.58, "downward_expansion": 68.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.136, 0.131636, 0.145786, 0.157151 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.145, "trend_reference": 0.171167, "distance_from_trend": -0.152872, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.174723, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.170117, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.964356, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.25641, "excess_performance": -0.320116, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152872, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.07394, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.170117, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238737, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199644, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.354501, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.25641, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.470706, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13888, "relative_activity": 0.061141, "balance": 0.470706, "dry_up": 0.760283, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.122016, "annualized_volatility": 0.509239, "from_high_reference": -0.462963, "from_low_reference": 0.380952 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.171167, "fair_value_reference": 0.174723, "structural_low": 0.105, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.041667, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.040742, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.391304, "worst_return": -0.325926, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.286376, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.22222, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.535714, "worst_return": 0.037037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.592593, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.460718, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.592593, "worst_return": 0.592593, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.233333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.243243, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073171, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.210526, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.208333, 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"close": 0.12, "volume": 66152, "typical_volume": 232903.5, "trend": 0.174333, "fair_value": 0.175466, "relative_strength": -30.237604, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.725594, "energy": 86.966345, "activity_lines": [ 0.121667, 0.132182, 0.15331, 0.164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.125, "volume": 309718, "typical_volume": 241852.0, "trend": 0.173667, "fair_value": 0.175125, "relative_strength": -26.991998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.363453, "energy": 81.029188, "activity_lines": [ 0.122333, 0.128818, 0.149238, 0.160817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.145, "volume": 301023, "typical_volume": 233184.7, "trend": 0.173167, "fair_value": 0.174923, "relative_strength": -17.427076, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.625167, "energy": 47.805627, "activity_lines": [ 0.13, 0.129909, 0.147381, 0.158968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.145, "volume": 13888, "typical_volume": 227146.0, "trend": 0.171167, "fair_value": 0.174723, "relative_strength": -19.964356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.654307, "energy": 36.698089, "activity_lines": [ 0.136, 0.131636, 0.145786, 0.157151 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }