{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85ad56f1-c098-40d4-8921-b146b4b68fc4", "symbol": "WBT", "name": "Weebit Nano Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 80.451, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.158, "architecture_energy": 38.905, "architecture_maturity": 70.3, "architecture_confidence": 59.778, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.66, "rotation_up": 16.7, "upward_expansion": 19.15, "deceleration": 69.8, "rotation_down": 70.12, "downward_expansion": 44.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.971333, 5.997455, 6.177238, 5.852194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.42, "trend_reference": 5.509333, "distance_from_trend": -0.197725, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.463718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.276085, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.88453, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.018433, "excess_performance": -0.045272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.197725, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165339, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.276085, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011082, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.128845, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.344048, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018433, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.740295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7013884, "relative_activity": 1.050526, "balance": 0.740295, "dry_up": 1.446487, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.308649, "annualized_volatility": 1.098023, "from_high_reference": -0.498582, "from_low_reference": 1.094787 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.509333, "fair_value_reference": 3.463718, "structural_low": 3.43, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.024081, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054208, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.493069, "worst_return": -0.232932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.164356, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.172303, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.455823, "worst_return": -0.488095, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.206897, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.193626, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.84949, "worst_return": -0.40396, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.29386, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.226148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014493, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.516798, "energy": 32.948005, "activity_lines": [ 7.242667, 7.343818, 6.505667, 6.021892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.24, "volume": 11733671, "typical_volume": 6246453.75, "trend": 5.543, "fair_value": 3.476795, "relative_strength": 10.762479, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.193818, "energy": 17.487132, "activity_lines": [ 6.451333, 6.964, 6.452476, 6.003075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.31, "volume": 11003286, "typical_volume": 6559779.45, "trend": 5.525667, "fair_value": 3.468718, "relative_strength": -11.654519, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.57634, "energy": 21.980443, "activity_lines": [ 5.570667, 6.443455, 6.30881, 5.923527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.42, "volume": 7013884, "typical_volume": 6676545.4, "trend": 5.509333, "fair_value": 3.463718, "relative_strength": -12.88453, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.157934, "energy": 38.904539, "activity_lines": [ 4.971333, 5.997455, 6.177238, 5.852194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }