{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85b73401-f30d-4359-95ab-964d1ef66f03", "symbol": "ADSK", "name": "Autodesk, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.001, "architecture_energy": 20.248, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 40.592, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.42, "rotation_up": 44.14, "upward_expansion": 23.59, "deceleration": 41.32, "rotation_down": 14.75, "downward_expansion": 55.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 4012.322021, 3823.318555, 3867.584477, 3955.041336 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4285.0, "trend_reference": 4076.213672, "distance_from_trend": 0.051221, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4784.356464, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.104373, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.919685, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.016067, "excess_performance": 0.070734, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.051221, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.118598, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.104373, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01145, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119197, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154363, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.016067, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.52072, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4575, "relative_activity": 3.278512, "balance": 1.52072, "dry_up": 2.168297, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061322, "annualized_volatility": 0.501306, "from_high_reference": -0.290068, "from_low_reference": 0.288768 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4076.213672, "fair_value_reference": 4784.356464, "structural_low": 3324.879883, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.000824, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010248, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.262996, "worst_return": -0.219512, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.016245, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.010093, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.323412, "worst_return": -0.235702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.009564, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.064148, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.586844, "worst_return": -0.337621, 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"relative_strength": -13.142087, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.348343, "energy": 15.707508, "activity_lines": [ 3841.629362, 3720.028192, 3837.124763, 3943.041229 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4285.0, "volume": 4575, "typical_volume": 1395.45, "trend": 4076.213672, "fair_value": 4784.356464, "relative_strength": -11.919685, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.000788, "energy": 20.247775, "activity_lines": [ 4012.322021, 3823.318555, 3867.584477, 3955.041336 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }