{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85bc4f96-79ae-46fc-8afc-9882a3d0ec3a", "symbol": "OXY1", "name": "Occidental Petroleum Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 7.399, "architecture_energy": 20.578, "architecture_maturity": 25.492, "architecture_confidence": 51.756, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.15, "rotation_up": 53.69, "upward_expansion": 32.66, "deceleration": 46.45, "rotation_down": 17.16, "downward_expansion": 21.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 973.261328, 946.957358, 958.219817, 965.549336 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 965.0, "trend_reference": 947.406937, "distance_from_trend": 0.01857, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 964.518883, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.000499, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.188279, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.206568, "excess_performance": 0.261235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01857, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070458, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.000499, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055895, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.071883, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099371, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.206568, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.027664, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 418, "relative_activity": 0.045737, "balance": 1.027664, "dry_up": 0.102224, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059668, "annualized_volatility": 0.47585, "from_high_reference": -0.207516, "from_low_reference": 0.384553 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 947.406937, "fair_value_reference": 964.518883, "structural_low": 777.044954, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.011841, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.035968, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.313983, "worst_return": -0.180645, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.001162, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.069017, "regime_survival": 0.111111, "best_return": 0.303027, "worst_return": -0.29149, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.035924, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.133285, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.086277, "worst_return": -0.137541, "sufficient": true 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.143823, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.119928, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.044517, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019431, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.117159, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-13", 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12.219634, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.590775, "energy": 16.743009, "activity_lines": [ 942.415332, 935.196767, 960.632117, 960.487357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 987.72998, "volume": 832, "typical_volume": 9468.7, "trend": 940.866841, "fair_value": 965.479828, "relative_strength": 9.759811, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.724593, "energy": 22.817422, "activity_lines": [ 965.243327, 942.843439, 960.382942, 963.992358 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 965.0, "volume": 418, "typical_volume": 9139.25, "trend": 947.406937, "fair_value": 964.518883, "relative_strength": 7.188279, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 7.399076, "energy": 20.577886, "activity_lines": [ 973.261328, 946.957358, 958.219817, 965.549336 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }