{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85c21598-e975-4b9e-bc57-3ec616ce8fd7", "symbol": "SQX", "name": "SQX Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.102, "architecture_energy": 75.952, "architecture_maturity": 75.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 29.98, "upward_expansion": 21.66, "deceleration": 41.49, "rotation_down": 54.54, "downward_expansion": 86.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0532, 0.053709, 0.06701, 0.087262 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.055, "trend_reference": 0.115833, "distance_from_trend": -0.52518, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.108083, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.491133, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -58.040907, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.685714, "excess_performance": -0.74942, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.52518, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204623, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.491133, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.373936, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.580409, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340765, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.685714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.487913, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1353109, "relative_activity": 1.090554, "balance": 0.487913, "dry_up": 0.301189, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164336, "annualized_volatility": 0.825009, "from_high_reference": -0.810345, "from_low_reference": 0.145833 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.115833, "fair_value_reference": 0.108083, "structural_low": 0.048, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.012821, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.072225, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.272727, "worst_return": -0.361905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.003189, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008828, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.346154, "worst_return": -0.52381, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.765197, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.68501, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.564103, "worst_return": -0.033708, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.944004, "energy": 90.425051, "activity_lines": [ 0.0508, 0.057055, 0.078705, 0.100275 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.059, "volume": 6500, "typical_volume": 1266124.1, "trend": 0.122, "fair_value": 0.109173, "relative_strength": -53.193163, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.339293, "energy": 88.24332, "activity_lines": [ 0.052867, 0.055945, 0.074652, 0.096037 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.05, "volume": 119775, "typical_volume": 1247860.05, "trend": 0.119, "fair_value": 0.108596, "relative_strength": -60.924377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.775669, "energy": 89.499331, "activity_lines": [ 0.052, 0.054036, 0.070319, 0.091391 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.055, "volume": 1353109, "typical_volume": 1240754.25, "trend": 0.115833, "fair_value": 0.108083, "relative_strength": -58.040907, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.101794, "energy": 75.95204, "activity_lines": [ 0.0532, 0.053709, 0.06701, 0.087262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }