{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85c6bce5-f3f8-4e04-a5b1-0f8521931b52", "symbol": "QGE4", "name": "QIAGEN NV", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 72.599, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 32.435, "architecture_energy": 63.068, "architecture_maturity": 8.978, "architecture_confidence": 63.633, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.51, "rotation_up": 72.49, "upward_expansion": 54.7, "deceleration": 15.57, "rotation_down": 14.29, "downward_expansion": 34.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.200001, 35.442128, 33.893271, 34.34353 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 36.400002, "trend_reference": 35.960183, "distance_from_trend": 0.012231, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 38.584842, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.056624, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.74114, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.164083, "excess_performance": -0.33833, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.012231, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039889, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.056624, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.219074, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217411, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17347, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164083, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.869248, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4318, "relative_activity": 2.609063, "balance": 0.869248, "dry_up": 4.680816, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039222, "annualized_volatility": 0.317421, "from_high_reference": -0.233684, "from_low_reference": 0.28169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.960183, "fair_value_reference": 38.584842, "structural_low": 28.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.020948, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.021008, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.050409, "worst_return": -0.072582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.02891, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.018006, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.052178, "worst_return": -0.349883, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.038701, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.148687, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.008414, "worst_return": -0.202939, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 18.460023, "energy": 32.415916, "activity_lines": [ 34.599101, 33.251616, 32.84897, 34.364597 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 36.0, "volume": 17103, "typical_volume": 996.6, "trend": 36.253652, "fair_value": 38.671643, "relative_strength": -21.489997, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.917117, "energy": 37.204783, "activity_lines": [ 35.328813, 33.969244, 33.067825, 34.342791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 36.400002, "volume": 8979, "typical_volume": 1445.55, "trend": 36.174708, "fair_value": 38.636043, "relative_strength": -20.919331, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 16.163928, "energy": 41.155353, "activity_lines": [ 35.916936, 34.621418, 33.351704, 34.352233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.799999, "volume": 587, "typical_volume": 1439.1, "trend": 36.160183, "fair_value": 38.603031, "relative_strength": -21.397776, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.422809, "energy": 53.737259, "activity_lines": [ 36.016667, 35.026318, 33.593749, 34.328058 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 36.400002, "volume": 4318, "typical_volume": 1655.0, "trend": 35.960183, "fair_value": 38.584842, "relative_strength": -21.74114, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.435134, "energy": 63.068252, "activity_lines": [ 36.200001, 35.442128, 33.893271, 34.34353 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }