{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85c781d2-81e1-4bed-809f-07406bbab8cd", "symbol": "STNE", "name": "StoneCo\u00a0Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.662, "architecture_energy": 23.77, "architecture_maturity": 20.327, "architecture_confidence": 79.562, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.43, "rotation_up": 24.23, "upward_expansion": 8.5, "deceleration": 50.52, "rotation_down": 38.54, "downward_expansion": 65.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.952667, 10.986636, 11.009408, 11.25208 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.6, "trend_reference": 11.7243, "distance_from_trend": -0.095895, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.351377, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066193, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.066291, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.250902, "excess_performance": -0.438355, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095895, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049572, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066193, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015991, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.270663, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03031, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.250902, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.150197, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14546971, "relative_activity": 0.614174, "balance": 1.150197, "dry_up": 0.718028, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092383, "annualized_volatility": 0.500218, "from_high_reference": -0.358667, "from_low_reference": 0.121396 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.7243, "fair_value_reference": 11.351377, "structural_low": 9.4525, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.04521, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.040634, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.089598, "worst_return": -0.196721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.010176, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.152421, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.393409, "worst_return": -0.484603, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.113662, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.026527, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.781668, "worst_return": -0.7493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.138013, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.079293, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.412976, "worst_return": -0.869051, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.238056, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.143151, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.251137, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.087146, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.063019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021858, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147287, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022926, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009381, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", 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11.080622, 11.427266 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.76, "volume": 16265295, "typical_volume": 24531937.15, "trend": 11.808675, "fair_value": 11.354379, "relative_strength": -22.4038, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.950014, "energy": 17.309742, "activity_lines": [ 11.024, 10.997273, 11.040408, 11.356327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.375, "volume": 16307775, "typical_volume": 23965920.35, "trend": 11.782166, "fair_value": 11.355654, "relative_strength": -18.235666, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.352034, "energy": 9.577598, "activity_lines": [ 11.130333, 11.065818, 11.061655, 11.328348 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.6, "volume": 14546971, "typical_volume": 23685417.9, "trend": 11.7243, "fair_value": 11.351377, "relative_strength": -27.066291, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.66244, "energy": 23.770207, "activity_lines": [ 10.952667, 10.986636, 11.009408, 11.25208 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }