{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85c825a7-06da-40a4-86e5-a15a42b8cc39", "symbol": "603408", "name": "Runner (Xiamen) Corp.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.423, "architecture_energy": 32.667, "architecture_maturity": 88.526, "architecture_confidence": 89.177, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.08, "rotation_up": 27.06, "upward_expansion": 16.44, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 37.39, "downward_expansion": 66.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.178, 10.100182, 10.324507, 10.74933 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.34, "trend_reference": 11.421306, "distance_from_trend": -0.094674, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.501598, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.100995, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.937777, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.219033, "excess_performance": -0.175829, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.094674, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078672, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.100995, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099792, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.119378, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010312, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.219033, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.375258, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17923600, "relative_activity": 1.982567, "balance": 0.375258, "dry_up": 1.52712, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057694, "annualized_volatility": 0.264351, "from_high_reference": -0.317686, "from_low_reference": 0.08159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.421306, "fair_value_reference": 11.501598, "structural_low": 9.56, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.013345, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": 0.006846, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.14785, "worst_return": -0.087912, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.062093, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.008248, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.144341, "worst_return": -0.06976, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.110306, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.053664, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.152421, "worst_return": -0.028404, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.92, "volume": 7668900, "typical_volume": 8947701.55, "trend": 11.914084, "fair_value": 11.487772, "relative_strength": -17.879242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.842495, "energy": 65.369554, "activity_lines": [ 9.995333, 10.150225, 10.615682, 11.158812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.95, "volume": 8416600, "typical_volume": 8852681.55, "trend": 11.763941, "fair_value": 11.491453, "relative_strength": -12.270356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.208038, "energy": 61.179787, "activity_lines": [ 9.964667, 10.074511, 10.504829, 11.032097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.65, "volume": 11194400, "typical_volume": 8509318.6, "trend": 11.637321, "fair_value": 11.493154, "relative_strength": -15.69702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.828371, "energy": 63.447841, "activity_lines": [ 9.856667, 9.970939, 10.382642, 10.895714 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.55, "volume": 17689751, "typical_volume": 8856211.15, "trend": 11.521639, "fair_value": 11.496979, "relative_strength": -7.983298, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.2474, "energy": 42.655257, "activity_lines": [ 10.081333, 10.054257, 10.359408, 10.825564 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.34, "volume": 17923600, "typical_volume": 9040601.75, "trend": 11.421306, "fair_value": 11.501598, "relative_strength": -11.937777, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.422688, "energy": 32.667279, "activity_lines": [ 10.178, 10.100182, 10.324507, 10.74933 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }