{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85c9fcef-4766-4a05-ac9d-b72ef089ef38", "symbol": "301016", "name": "Nanjing Railway New Technology Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.133, "architecture_energy": 59.341, "architecture_maturity": 23.986, "architecture_confidence": 84.699, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.39, "rotation_up": 14.14, "upward_expansion": 11.12, "deceleration": 43.28, "rotation_down": 65.67, "downward_expansion": 84.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.26, 12.747273, 14.131165, 14.902977 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.12, "trend_reference": 15.89976, "distance_from_trend": -0.17483, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.280397, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.16308, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.149081, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.249836, "excess_performance": -0.257236, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.17483, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.017292, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.16308, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.520014, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161491, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172905, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.249836, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.063383, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39034918, "relative_activity": 1.984726, "balance": 1.063383, "dry_up": 1.078107, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.15068, "annualized_volatility": 0.566611, "from_high_reference": -0.395948, "from_low_reference": 0.251908 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.89976, "fair_value_reference": 11.280397, "structural_low": 10.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006429, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.031663, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.485243, "worst_return": -0.449331, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.190722, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.239306, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.992926, "worst_return": -0.216539, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.338164, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.408989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.56138, "worst_return": 0.114948, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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-77.296635, "energy": 75.285812, "activity_lines": [ 13.072, 13.918364, 15.084546, 15.678627 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.45, "volume": 17756537, "typical_volume": 18879097.6, "trend": 16.082328, "fair_value": 11.234451, "relative_strength": -24.544438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.422177, "energy": 66.810526, "activity_lines": [ 12.446667, 13.288182, 14.677679, 15.373124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.67, "volume": 11394483, "typical_volume": 18412368.15, "trend": 15.994941, "fair_value": 11.248378, "relative_strength": -21.648597, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.260001, "energy": 73.240841, "activity_lines": [ 12.082, 12.816545, 14.322815, 15.088457 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.12, "volume": 39034918, "typical_volume": 19667657.15, "trend": 15.89976, "fair_value": 11.280397, "relative_strength": -16.149081, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.133228, "energy": 59.340624, "activity_lines": [ 12.26, 12.747273, 14.131165, 14.902977 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }