{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85cc0e77-47f1-433f-ad80-19d76a28dfae", "symbol": "301004", "name": "Zhejiang Cayi Vacuum Container Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.878, "architecture_energy": 38.226, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.05, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.05, "rotation_up": 27.74, "upward_expansion": 19.14, "deceleration": 46.99, "rotation_down": 37.45, "downward_expansion": 69.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.027999, 34.338363, 36.732095, 39.990301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 35.369999, "trend_reference": 44.287, "distance_from_trend": -0.201346, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 53.432275, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.338041, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.192393, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.272072, "excess_performance": -0.279472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.201346, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131258, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.338041, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177515, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.331924, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078024, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.272072, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.350321, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4760654, "relative_activity": 1.443038, "balance": 0.350321, "dry_up": 1.519825, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100933, "annualized_volatility": 0.482454, "from_high_reference": -0.512871, "from_low_reference": 0.164253 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.287, "fair_value_reference": 53.432275, "structural_low": 30.379999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.047302, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.071828, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.293228, "worst_return": -0.171302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.074382, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.12023, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.317569, "worst_return": -0.300224, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.058931, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.298494, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.666599, "worst_return": -0.121067, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.527128, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124844, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.132484, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093343, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005424, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.57, "volume": 5046320, "typical_volume": 3043876.05, "trend": 45.278667, "fair_value": 53.281441, "relative_strength": -38.501752, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.714109, "energy": 64.987902, "activity_lines": [ 32.874, 33.775091, 37.528714, 41.09686 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.599998, "volume": 5913477, "typical_volume": 3188138.55, "trend": 44.843, "fair_value": 53.367897, "relative_strength": -26.560897, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.720462, "energy": 50.509855, "activity_lines": [ 34.513333, 34.233454, 37.204428, 40.601462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 35.369999, "volume": 4760654, "typical_volume": 3299049.5, "trend": 44.287, "fair_value": 53.432275, "relative_strength": -33.192393, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.878076, "energy": 38.226282, "activity_lines": [ 35.027999, 34.338363, 36.732095, 39.990301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }