{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85d186b2-f2f0-4cd3-bb42-5a0a5e92fcad", "symbol": "FSM", "name": "Fortuna Silver Mines Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 83.186, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -18.962, "architecture_energy": 13.355, "architecture_maturity": 45.213, "architecture_confidence": 86.495, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.36, "rotation_up": 27.53, "upward_expansion": 15.86, "deceleration": 41.79, "rotation_down": 31.7, "downward_expansion": 65.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.077333, 8.879636, 9.141, 9.476667 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 10.39, "trend_reference": 9.944667, "distance_from_trend": 0.044781, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.224679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.669162, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.872482, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.000963, "excess_performance": -0.124661, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044781, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018941, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.669162, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201329, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.018725, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.115042, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.000963, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.825503, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32301526, "relative_activity": 1.16034, "balance": 0.825503, "dry_up": 1.016803, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103538, "annualized_volatility": 0.70051, "from_high_reference": -0.249819, "from_low_reference": 0.63622 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.944667, "fair_value_reference": 6.224679, "structural_low": 7.9201, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.018695, "positive_rate": 0.458333, "directional_follow_through": 0.541667, "median_excess_return": -0.003221, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.32093, "worst_return": -0.27572, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.033742, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.05358, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.493827, "worst_return": -0.301724, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.294118, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.192408, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.47216, "worst_return": -0.322034, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.374455, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.15974, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.124722, "worst_return": -0.485876, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.093275, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010225, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.120163, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.129176, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", 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0.084768, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.211976, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.026998, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.130477, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12203, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.86, "volume": 14823945, "typical_volume": 14153367.3, "trend": 3.476667, "fair_value": 4.550897, "relative_strength": -20.687753, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.55, "volume": 27953108, "typical_volume": 28177347.95, "trend": 9.977333, "fair_value": 6.144679, "relative_strength": -15.03651, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.758893, "energy": 47.369566, "activity_lines": [ 8.46, 8.668364, 9.137762, 9.547484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.43, "volume": 28713621, "typical_volume": 28164155.15, "trend": 9.940333, "fair_value": 6.177308, "relative_strength": -17.24168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.711886, "energy": 41.265652, "activity_lines": [ 8.439333, 8.587455, 9.041619, 9.447656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.39, "volume": 32301526, "typical_volume": 27837987.6, "trend": 9.944667, "fair_value": 6.224679, "relative_strength": -1.872482, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -18.9618, "energy": 13.355193, "activity_lines": [ 9.077333, 8.879636, 9.141, 9.476667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }