{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85d1c594-b2a0-4097-92a7-848cc0037419", "symbol": "GOAT", "name": "VanEck Morningstar International Wide Moat ETF", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 76.925, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 12.121, "architecture_energy": 27.814, "architecture_maturity": 7.738, "architecture_confidence": 53.405, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.34, "rotation_up": 51.29, "upward_expansion": 40.0, "deceleration": 33.19, "rotation_down": 14.25, "downward_expansion": 43.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.839333, 25.477032, 25.072514, 25.374572 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 26.139999, "trend_reference": 26.130627, "distance_from_trend": 0.000359, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 25.598978, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021134, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.95988, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.083129, "excess_performance": -0.146834, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000359, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048189, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021134, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.085497, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.089599, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057616, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.083129, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.484601, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 130697, "relative_activity": 2.516215, "balance": 1.484601, "dry_up": 3.013189, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030949, "annualized_volatility": 0.22275, "from_high_reference": -0.14267, "from_low_reference": 0.140488 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.130627, "fair_value_reference": 25.598978, "structural_low": 22.920021, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.004047, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.011035, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.04987, "worst_return": -0.039807, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.049222, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.000596, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.096693, "worst_return": -0.008598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.08229, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.024471, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.149578, "worst_return": 0.026655, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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27.643433, "activity_lines": [ 24.823117, 24.486618, 24.873629, 25.644 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.049999, "volume": 99464, "typical_volume": 26248.55, "trend": 26.59696, "fair_value": 25.52587, "relative_strength": -8.907422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.682823, "energy": 23.611288, "activity_lines": [ 24.972357, 24.639185, 24.830111, 25.534734 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 25.219999, "volume": 92359, "typical_volume": 30281.05, "trend": 26.46696, "fair_value": 25.541893, "relative_strength": -8.048515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.340925, "energy": 22.766401, "activity_lines": [ 25.115736, 24.796249, 24.820021, 25.445898 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.0, "volume": 194880, "typical_volume": 38582.15, "trend": 26.368294, "fair_value": 25.559733, "relative_strength": -4.774784, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.611035, "energy": 21.649516, "activity_lines": [ 25.455489, 25.068419, 24.899455, 25.415771 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.85, "volume": 208107, "typical_volume": 45811.5, "trend": 26.260294, "fair_value": 25.578789, "relative_strength": -7.284117, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 4.895307, "energy": 22.565313, "activity_lines": [ 25.644666, 25.260766, 24.971461, 25.382333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.139999, "volume": 130697, "typical_volume": 51941.9, "trend": 26.130627, "fair_value": 25.598978, "relative_strength": -8.95988, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.121491, "energy": 27.813802, "activity_lines": [ 25.839333, 25.477032, 25.072514, 25.374572 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }