{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85da473e-9102-4f9a-8bbd-76cbe0912ced", "symbol": "AKSHOPTFBR", "name": "Aksh Optifibre Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.782, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.651, "architecture_energy": 27.889, "architecture_maturity": 62.546, "architecture_confidence": 91.216, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.08, "rotation_up": 22.29, "upward_expansion": 43.97, "deceleration": 83.95, "rotation_down": 45.6, "downward_expansion": 35.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.038, 6.286545, 6.363476, 6.102237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.79, "trend_reference": 5.805, "distance_from_trend": 0.169681, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.80391, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.228752, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.8517, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.288425, "excess_performance": 0.332134, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.169681, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.228752, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043365, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.068517, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014132, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.288425, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.248941, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1283524, "relative_activity": 1.386943, "balance": 1.248941, "dry_up": 0.818775, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083381, "annualized_volatility": 0.697414, "from_high_reference": -0.245556, "from_low_reference": 0.777487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.805, "fair_value_reference": 8.80391, "structural_low": 3.82, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.033019, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.072261, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.129808, "worst_return": -0.247826, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.063636, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.064917, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.169811, "worst_return": -0.208696, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.024357, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.099822, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.255682, "worst_return": -0.163551, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.008531, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.075477, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.085227, "worst_return": -0.014019, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.047399, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.100877, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122549, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046595, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.125534, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114919, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102508, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.569975, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.168856, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145793, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.311534, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032653, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.221458, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.176776, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.75, "volume": 2549924, "typical_volume": 3202415.75, "trend": 9.186667, "fair_value": 9.226923, "relative_strength": 1.744112, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 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44.237041, "activity_lines": [ 6.775333, 6.769455, 6.391048, 6.080452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.66, "volume": 811287, "typical_volume": 1146678.05, "trend": 5.844, "fair_value": 8.890128, "relative_strength": -11.741153, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.205768, "energy": 18.820157, "activity_lines": [ 6.343333, 6.568364, 6.36681, 6.066516 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.77, "volume": 503216, "typical_volume": 1120829.7, "trend": 5.818667, "fair_value": 8.864295, "relative_strength": -7.231216, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.943339, "energy": 25.146151, "activity_lines": [ 6.043333, 6.418, 6.349238, 6.061742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.44, "volume": 432862, "typical_volume": 1056160.2, "trend": 5.783667, "fair_value": 8.835064, "relative_strength": -14.078858, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.519064, "energy": 39.200916, "activity_lines": [ 5.754667, 6.224, 6.294238, 6.037312 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.79, "volume": 1283524, "typical_volume": 925434.05, "trend": 5.805, "fair_value": 8.80391, "relative_strength": 6.8517, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.650888, "energy": 27.888841, "activity_lines": [ 6.038, 6.286545, 6.363476, 6.102237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }