{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85da5f5d-bedf-4c71-a8e1-7425f5dfc3e6", "symbol": "EZPW", "name": "EZCORP Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.131, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -4.771, "architecture_energy": 18.391, "architecture_maturity": 24.787, "architecture_confidence": 92.173, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.84, "rotation_up": 19.83, "upward_expansion": 46.07, "deceleration": 81.14, "rotation_down": 44.15, "downward_expansion": 35.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.696667, 31.089818, 31.573857, 30.642194 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 27.9, "trend_reference": 28.877, "distance_from_trend": -0.033833, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.678526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.779504, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.164138, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.088568, "excess_performance": -0.098886, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033833, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.164254, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.779504, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.660008, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011641, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.404767, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.088568, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.835176, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5968009, "relative_activity": 1.398074, "balance": 0.835176, "dry_up": 1.085557, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.126212, "annualized_volatility": 0.342585, "from_high_reference": -0.248485, "from_low_reference": 0.833114 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.877, "fair_value_reference": 15.678526, "structural_low": 23.77, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.033067, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.002814, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.268409, "worst_return": -0.108046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.055215, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.013259, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.326896, "worst_return": -0.025581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.115304, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.006994, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.532904, "worst_return": 0.028221, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006406, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017164, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070943, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149499, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.109375, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.202978, "energy": 38.321988, "activity_lines": [ 33.350667, 32.882909, 32.087524, 30.500086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.54, "volume": 4131695, "typical_volume": 4193315.25, "trend": 28.335667, "fair_value": 15.42609, "relative_strength": 14.913968, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.970262, "energy": 21.015905, "activity_lines": [ 32.131333, 32.304364, 31.980619, 30.598645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.77, "volume": 3730397, "typical_volume": 4175882.2, "trend": 28.659333, "fair_value": 15.557756, "relative_strength": 14.126821, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.250252, "energy": 11.008507, "activity_lines": [ 31.134, 31.830545, 31.875571, 30.691183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.9, "volume": 5968009, "typical_volume": 4268737.35, "trend": 28.877, "fair_value": 15.678526, "relative_strength": 1.164138, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.771283, "energy": 18.391186, "activity_lines": [ 29.696667, 31.089818, 31.573857, 30.642194 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }