{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85df09d3-fe40-430c-be6b-1ff81100e0d3", "symbol": "WGO", "name": "Winnebago Industries Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.482, "architecture_energy": 9.858, "architecture_maturity": 28.635, "architecture_confidence": 58.042, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.84, "rotation_up": 28.75, "upward_expansion": 30.08, "deceleration": 49.51, "rotation_down": 21.05, "downward_expansion": 43.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.0, 30.626236, 30.343216, 31.42623 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 32.16, "trend_reference": 34.186527, "distance_from_trend": -0.059279, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 44.867523, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.283223, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.770992, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.325105, "excess_performance": -0.45073, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.059279, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.069179, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.283223, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053093, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17771, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021543, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.325105, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.020579, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2326816, "relative_activity": 0.673815, "balance": 1.020579, "dry_up": 0.7445, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081782, "annualized_volatility": 0.419152, "from_high_reference": -0.343538, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 34.186527, "fair_value_reference": 44.867523, "structural_low": 26.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.000413, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02336, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.113943, "worst_return": -0.159744, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.031221, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.0553, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.141681, "worst_return": -0.30483, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009542, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05283, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.314428, "worst_return": -0.357784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.291365, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.007722, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.052592, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.136207, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060772, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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-36.231587, "energy": 21.190948, "activity_lines": [ 30.388667, 29.871257, 30.230869, 32.160888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.77, "volume": 2406559, "typical_volume": 3522643.4, "trend": 34.860301, "fair_value": 45.245685, "relative_strength": -17.955451, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.928051, "energy": 19.118043, "activity_lines": [ 30.562, 30.101675, 30.220466, 31.875932 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.28, "volume": 2333522, "typical_volume": 3485415.8, "trend": 34.550078, "fair_value": 45.047374, "relative_strength": -20.002112, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.580463, "energy": 16.241779, "activity_lines": [ 30.432, 30.200983, 30.185651, 31.580428 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.16, "volume": 2326816, "typical_volume": 3453195.95, "trend": 34.186527, "fair_value": 44.867523, "relative_strength": -17.770992, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.482131, "energy": 9.858309, "activity_lines": [ 31.0, 30.626236, 30.343216, 31.42623 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }