{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85e24bbe-5ca3-4bb7-89a1-2397b0913781", "symbol": "MTF-F48", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4A) S&P Technology Currency-Hedged", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.093, "architecture_energy": 67.642, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.324, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.37, "rotation_up": 29.74, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.91, "rotation_down": 58.98, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 145.806667, 146.950909, 3716.05381, 5869.290968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 150.1, "trend_reference": 8254.163333, "distance_from_trend": -0.981815, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9302.614744, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.983865, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.622284, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.986681, "excess_performance": -1.015582, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.981815, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322021, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.983865, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.436137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.986223, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.91936, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.986681, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.323191, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9234, "relative_activity": 0.672762, "balance": 1.323191, "dry_up": 0.926068, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 8.963153, "annualized_volatility": 6.389923, "from_high_reference": -0.990228, "from_low_reference": 0.098829 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8254.163333, "fair_value_reference": 9302.614744, "structural_low": 136.6, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.010124, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.010425, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.164457, "worst_return": -0.134292, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.032035, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.039303, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.268799, "worst_return": -0.986832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.171208, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.074243, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.380998, "worst_return": -0.210899, "sufficient": false 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"trend": 9036.063333, "fair_value": 9396.800641, "relative_strength": -98.767015, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.861088, "energy": 69.133519, "activity_lines": [ 145.346667, 957.981818, 5103.27619, 6991.197849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 142.9, "volume": 17611, "typical_volume": 14284.9, "trend": 8646.493333, "fair_value": 9349.152564, "relative_strength": -98.717372, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.637274, "energy": 68.573474, "activity_lines": [ 144.193333, 423.201818, 4382.638571, 6417.445376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 150.1, "volume": 9234, "typical_volume": 13725.5, "trend": 8254.163333, "fair_value": 9302.614744, "relative_strength": -98.622284, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.092508, "energy": 67.642053, "activity_lines": [ 145.806667, 146.950909, 3716.05381, 5869.290968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }