{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85e35a9b-43e2-40a0-b433-dbb3e8fc0f5c", "symbol": "NODK", "name": "NI Holdings Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.242, "architecture_energy": 33.313, "architecture_maturity": 58.91, "architecture_confidence": 85.906, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.5, "rotation_up": 32.31, "upward_expansion": 62.34, "deceleration": 91.15, "rotation_down": 26.59, "downward_expansion": 17.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.588, 15.722, 15.108667, 14.606968 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 15.62, "trend_reference": 14.071667, "distance_from_trend": 0.110032, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.039615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.112566, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.765384, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.151069, "excess_performance": -0.036385, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110032, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054268, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.112566, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.192528, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007654, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.186499, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.151069, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.669916, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 129625, "relative_activity": 1.238023, "balance": 2.669916, "dry_up": 1.053755, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059796, "annualized_volatility": 0.205479, "from_high_reference": -0.064671, "from_low_reference": 0.278232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.071667, "fair_value_reference": 14.039615, "structural_low": 12.42, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.014685, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036629, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.054902, "worst_return": -0.086022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.118996, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.02077, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.021248, "worst_return": -0.138284, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.041577, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.151131, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.052457, "worst_return": -0.160051, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.012274, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.235165, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.156989, "worst_return": -0.181537, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.124286, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061078, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06274, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002757, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.083624, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.058289, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.046955, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014074, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020619, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.061654, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086583, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113019, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047769, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.01, "volume": 37184, "typical_volume": 46449.85, "trend": 13.551333, "fair_value": 16.414487, "relative_strength": -17.239816, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.632748, "energy": 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102360.65, "trend": 13.631333, "fair_value": 13.961282, "relative_strength": 5.662688, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.203334, "energy": 94.720018, "activity_lines": [ 15.712667, 14.932, 14.133667, 13.868602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 16.09, "volume": 113684, "typical_volume": 105925.95, "trend": 13.725667, "fair_value": 13.974936, "relative_strength": 3.321, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.417686, "energy": 89.759209, "activity_lines": [ 15.966, 15.251455, 14.361095, 14.027226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.75, "volume": 77305, "typical_volume": 108161.6, "trend": 13.788, "fair_value": 13.987115, "relative_strength": -0.487024, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.771348, "energy": 86.52691, "activity_lines": [ 15.965333, 15.457273, 14.542905, 14.157828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.91, "volume": 67834, "typical_volume": 105551.8, "trend": 13.854333, "fair_value": 13.999872, "relative_strength": 4.945731, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.410022, "energy": 68.093453, "activity_lines": [ 15.959333, 15.640364, 14.729, 14.294731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.85, "volume": 113955, "typical_volume": 107407.9, "trend": 13.931667, "fair_value": 14.012051, "relative_strength": 6.269016, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.223021, "energy": 57.117231, "activity_lines": [ 15.91, 15.756182, 14.896857, 14.423484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.15, "volume": 129912, "typical_volume": 107060.7, "trend": 13.994333, "fair_value": 14.023846, "relative_strength": 1.078462, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.168426, "energy": 39.676246, "activity_lines": [ 15.631333, 15.707455, 14.984952, 14.502086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.62, "volume": 129625, "typical_volume": 104703.2, "trend": 14.071667, "fair_value": 14.039615, "relative_strength": -0.765384, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.242157, "energy": 33.313498, "activity_lines": [ 15.588, 15.722, 15.108667, 14.606968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }