{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85e360ea-4297-4fb2-bc22-ab61508cc055", "symbol": "300483", "name": "Sino Prima Gas Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 53.842, "architecture_energy": 33.793, "architecture_maturity": 50.985, "architecture_confidence": 68.458, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.5, "rotation_up": 59.47, "upward_expansion": 64.95, "deceleration": 59.78, "rotation_down": 13.04, "downward_expansion": 12.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.084667, 20.009273, 19.941476, 19.979591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 23.290001, "trend_reference": 19.537667, "distance_from_trend": 0.192056, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.246923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.901702, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 32.788285, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.406401, "excess_performance": 0.399001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.192056, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.077128, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.901702, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126295, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.327883, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.177195, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.406401, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.687863, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64609421, "relative_activity": 0.529726, "balance": 1.687863, "dry_up": 0.96009, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117383, "annualized_volatility": 0.602178, "from_high_reference": -0.077989, "from_low_reference": 1.150508 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.537667, "fair_value_reference": 12.246923, "structural_low": 15.12, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.007246, "positive_rate": 0.615385, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": 0.012614, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.159472, "worst_return": -0.19545, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041368, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.042291, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.649378, "worst_return": -0.245234, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.233553, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.241056, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.533989, "worst_return": -0.317362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.112885, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006857, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.02938, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.630077, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042039, "active": false }, { 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"Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.152109, "energy": 18.972407, "activity_lines": [ 18.959333, 19.413818, 20.031143, 19.625118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.629999, "volume": 91196333, "typical_volume": 159069279.9, "trend": 18.753, "fair_value": 12.034744, "relative_strength": -1.504197, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.394354, "energy": 32.858749, "activity_lines": [ 18.488666, 18.984727, 19.789047, 19.557312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.26, "volume": 140281432, "typical_volume": 160604765.9, "trend": 18.82, "fair_value": 12.066218, "relative_strength": 5.47815, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.792343, "energy": 38.15481, "activity_lines": [ 17.984, 18.580182, 19.508, 19.460989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.49, "volume": 143542484, "typical_volume": 144398762.05, "trend": 18.987667, "fair_value": 12.111603, "relative_strength": 17.775347, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -23.548047, "energy": 18.231007, "activity_lines": [ 18.382667, 18.642363, 19.440047, 19.504215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.299999, "volume": 119966204, "typical_volume": 132490519.9, "trend": 19.234, "fair_value": 12.174936, "relative_strength": 35.309595, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.982396, "energy": 14.303537, "activity_lines": [ 19.716666, 19.237454, 19.645428, 19.717914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.290001, "volume": 64609421, "typical_volume": 121967675.35, "trend": 19.537667, "fair_value": 12.246923, "relative_strength": 32.788285, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.842436, "energy": 33.793412, "activity_lines": [ 21.084667, 20.009273, 19.941476, 19.979591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }