{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85e6ad54-aa95-43c8-9975-9768645a4241", "symbol": "PPH", "name": "PPHE Hotel Group Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.154, "architecture_energy": 60.268, "architecture_maturity": 15.215, "architecture_confidence": 82.112, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.4, "rotation_up": 10.82, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 38.97, "rotation_down": 72.83, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 1553.733333, 1602.836364, 1653.094181, 1679.130441 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1526.0, "trend_reference": 1724.656177, "distance_from_trend": -0.115186, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1411.003018, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.0815, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.071754, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.145464, "excess_performance": -0.211743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.115186, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008788, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.0815, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066841, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058751, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145464, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.09026, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 284828, "relative_activity": 2.054689, "balance": 1.09026, "dry_up": 1.319059, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096381, "annualized_volatility": 0.555393, "from_high_reference": -0.269856, "from_low_reference": 0.209509 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1724.656177, "fair_value_reference": 1411.003018, "structural_low": 1468.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.002941, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.478261, "median_excess_return": -0.01229, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.165957, "worst_return": -0.136691, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.011321, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.056009, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.132251, "worst_return": -0.093525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.052351, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.015822, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.335112, "worst_return": -0.172662, "sufficient": true 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}, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1580.0, "volume": 139118, "typical_volume": 142946.1, "trend": 1745.899715, "fair_value": 1401.28106, "relative_strength": -10.654892, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.358581, "energy": 39.835611, "activity_lines": [ 1612.4, 1699.872727, 1691.49898, 1716.74693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1538.0, "volume": 127627, "typical_volume": 143703.45, "trend": 1738.774068, "fair_value": 1404.414929, "relative_strength": -13.82789, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.179341, "energy": 60.598218, "activity_lines": [ 1582.266667, 1665.854545, 1676.406505, 1703.334045 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1570.0, "volume": 179837, "typical_volume": 147953.35, "trend": 1732.381799, "fair_value": 1407.849999, "relative_strength": -12.737238, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.840269, "energy": 61.101671, "activity_lines": [ 1572.533333, 1638.418182, 1666.560396, 1692.445395 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1526.0, "volume": 284828, "typical_volume": 138623.4, "trend": 1724.656177, "fair_value": 1411.003018, "relative_strength": -15.071754, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.154035, "energy": 60.268159, "activity_lines": [ 1553.733333, 1602.836364, 1653.094181, 1679.130441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }