{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85e80a5d-2173-4f7a-a5a2-703b4c2575e5", "symbol": "RMAU", "name": "Royal Mint Responsibly Sourced Physical Gold ETC", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 55.18, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.493, "architecture_energy": 49.257, "architecture_maturity": 62.63, "architecture_confidence": 64.969, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.18, "rotation_up": 26.34, "upward_expansion": 19.95, "deceleration": 66.84, "rotation_down": 46.4, "downward_expansion": 69.95 }, "activity_lines": [ 35.596334, 35.534546, 36.5255, 37.577807 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.080002, "trend_reference": 38.8845, "distance_from_trend": -0.046407, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 27.592208, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.343858, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.623705, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.100109, "excess_performance": -0.271001, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046407, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002851, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.343858, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.171098, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.136237, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.136211, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100109, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.577198, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32176, "relative_activity": 1.34553, "balance": 0.577198, "dry_up": 0.781272, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.031802, "annualized_volatility": 0.222074, "from_high_reference": -0.187377, "from_low_reference": 0.314428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.8845, "fair_value_reference": 27.592208, "structural_low": 34.224998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.00082, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014029, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.06652, "worst_return": -0.049352, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.030724, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.041652, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.080211, "worst_return": -0.054505, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.061459, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.097822, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106311, "worst_return": 0.021334, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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39.118667, "fair_value": 27.133715, "relative_strength": -16.16568, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.337333, "energy": 88.488793, "activity_lines": [ 35.550333, 36.281363, 37.614214, 38.519871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.540001, "volume": 25762, "typical_volume": 30509.2, "trend": 39.048833, "fair_value": 27.242984, "relative_strength": -16.817757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.820438, "energy": 90.016883, "activity_lines": [ 35.191667, 35.830545, 37.201334, 38.224473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.25, "volume": 9416, "typical_volume": 27429.65, "trend": 38.978, "fair_value": 27.355766, "relative_strength": -14.961624, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.302728, "energy": 64.118616, "activity_lines": [ 35.163, 35.598091, 36.899548, 37.979387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.595001, "volume": 7377, "typical_volume": 25144.35, "trend": 38.9215, "fair_value": 27.465708, "relative_strength": -17.026678, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.309244, "energy": 67.36498, "activity_lines": [ 34.943, 35.306091, 36.573143, 37.696613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.080002, "volume": 32176, "typical_volume": 23913.25, "trend": 38.8845, "fair_value": 27.592208, "relative_strength": -13.623705, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.492542, "energy": 49.256965, "activity_lines": [ 35.596334, 35.534546, 36.5255, 37.577807 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }