{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85f39d07-ee77-4a14-a092-ea4b5681ee9c", "symbol": "IBGA", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2044 TERM TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.49, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.713, "architecture_energy": 71.501, "architecture_maturity": 6.027, "architecture_confidence": 80.092, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.67, "rotation_up": 9.03, "upward_expansion": 16.26, "deceleration": 37.1, "rotation_down": 74.73, "downward_expansion": 91.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.578546, 23.803967, 23.936674, 24.044921 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.5818, "trend_reference": 24.1947, "distance_from_trend": -0.025332, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 23.892095, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.012987, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.139252, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.034453, "excess_performance": -0.221906, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.025332, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005878, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.012987, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151393, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014026, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.034453, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.652308, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 82379, "relative_activity": 1.311536, "balance": 1.652308, "dry_up": 1.039207, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016483, "annualized_volatility": 0.088308, "from_high_reference": -0.064054, "from_low_reference": 0.012736 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.1947, "fair_value_reference": 23.892095, "structural_low": 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-52.872287, "energy": 26.187352, "activity_lines": [ 24.053912, 24.091513, 24.106406, 24.190204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 23.573165, "volume": 52727, "typical_volume": 59117.4, "trend": 24.252073, "fair_value": 23.899816, "relative_strength": -11.158399, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.805259, "energy": 59.115911, "activity_lines": [ 23.857732, 24.005768, 24.051948, 24.144767 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.345391, "volume": 79934, "typical_volume": 61219.5, "trend": 24.222722, "fair_value": 23.894866, "relative_strength": -12.096711, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.44661, "energy": 75.742565, "activity_lines": [ 23.638732, 23.879065, 23.981024, 24.086271 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.5818, "volume": 82379, "typical_volume": 62811.1, "trend": 24.1947, "fair_value": 23.892095, "relative_strength": -15.139252, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.712959, "energy": 71.500977, "activity_lines": [ 23.578546, 23.803967, 23.936674, 24.044921 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }