{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85f45c54-91a8-4dff-b932-bad48f1a1f80", "symbol": "JTEKTINDIA", "name": "JTEKT India Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.524, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 23.121, "architecture_energy": 10.832, "architecture_maturity": 19.313, "architecture_confidence": 65.115, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.64, "rotation_up": 35.65, "upward_expansion": 42.45, "deceleration": 64.85, "rotation_down": 33.26, "downward_expansion": 14.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 137.623133, 137.600849, 135.460838, 134.704915 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 139.800003, "trend_reference": 134.822065, "distance_from_trend": 0.036922, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 150.775902, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.072796, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.581749, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.042006, "excess_performance": 0.001703, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036922, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033924, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.072796, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031308, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005817, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058715, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.042006, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.731358, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 878766, "relative_activity": 1.078922, "balance": 0.731358, "dry_up": 1.245164, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070281, "annualized_volatility": 0.403819, "from_high_reference": -0.258355, "from_low_reference": 0.19477 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 134.822065, "fair_value_reference": 150.775902, "structural_low": 117.010002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.018765, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.024507, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.246221, "worst_return": -0.106415, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.065972, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.039561, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.354491, "worst_return": -0.14446, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.143219, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.090417, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.689902, "worst_return": 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-0.197181, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028938, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.148055, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078234, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": 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21.636312, "activity_lines": [ 137.081115, 135.651963, 134.176097, 134.156673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 139.345687, "volume": 1803220, "typical_volume": 786313.15, "trend": 135.177065, "fair_value": 150.763328, "relative_strength": 0.006104, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.833357, "energy": 14.876983, "activity_lines": [ 137.427927, 136.682338, 134.818419, 134.406661 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 139.800003, "volume": 878766, "typical_volume": 814485.15, "trend": 134.822065, "fair_value": 150.775902, "relative_strength": -0.581749, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.120689, "energy": 10.832135, "activity_lines": [ 137.623133, 137.600849, 135.460838, 134.704915 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }