{ "ticker": { "uuid": "85f6cf58-ee60-4ce8-b716-15490f91c4f0", "symbol": "GIS", "name": "General Mills, Inc.", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 94.924, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -10.258, "architecture_energy": 13.473, "architecture_maturity": 41.847, "architecture_confidence": 57.506, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.33, "rotation_up": 33.73, "upward_expansion": 33.34, "deceleration": 47.26, "rotation_down": 17.75, "downward_expansion": 41.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 627.6, 624.827746, 613.218161, 630.136441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 618.0, "trend_reference": 666.734079, "distance_from_trend": -0.073094, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1029.235829, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.399555, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.693423, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.272242, "excess_performance": -0.217575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073094, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.104379, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.399555, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049646, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206934, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165215, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.272242, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.384353, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8, "relative_activity": 0.001232, "balance": 0.384353, "dry_up": 0.107024, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047101, "annualized_volatility": 0.285337, "from_high_reference": -0.343768, "from_low_reference": 0.104616 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 666.734079, "fair_value_reference": 1029.235829, "structural_low": 559.470282, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.031643, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.09962, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.031643, "worst_return": 0.031643, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.151207, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.210507, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.151207, "worst_return": 0.151207, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.184506, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.183508, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.184506, "worst_return": 0.184506, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.179658, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.12574, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.179658, "worst_return": 0.179658, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-12-02", "end": "2023-01-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022952, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-01-20", "end": "2023-02-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03355, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-02-24", "end": "2023-04-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0634, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-04-21", "end": "2023-05-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2023-06-02", "end": "2023-06-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062453, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2024-03-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.208973, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-22", "end": "2024-04-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.008696, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.240046, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0633, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040175, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.456309, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014354, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1211.047974, "volume": 808, "typical_volume": 2928.85, "trend": 1425.347115, "fair_value": 1356.960603, "relative_strength": -21.063661, "stage": 4, "regime": 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-21.300462, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.168508, "energy": 18.582717, "activity_lines": [ 634.806639, 623.72999, 612.922143, 633.627931 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 618.0, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": 6493.9, "trend": 666.734079, "fair_value": 1029.235829, "relative_strength": -20.693423, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -10.257758, "energy": 13.473005, "activity_lines": [ 627.6, 624.827746, 613.218161, 630.136441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }